Highlights
– Russia announces major increases in military spending and procurement
– Economic crisis will delay start of rearmament until 2011 at the earliest
– Announcement intended to send a message to the US/NATO
On March 17, 2009, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev ordered a major military rearmament, warning that the country faced several political and military threats, especially in areas close to its borders. He specifically called for the modernization of Russia’s nuclear forces and said the large-scale rearmament of the Army and Navy would commence in 2011.
Political implications drive Medvedev’s most recent rhetoric. Many within the Russian military establishment continue to view the United States (US) through a Cold War lens, provoking aggressive language toward the West and attempts to counter perceived American influence in Eastern Europe and Central Asia. A reorganized military with a modern nuclear arsenal would allow Russia to counter its current perceived geopolitical weakness at the hands of NATO.
The hawkish tone Medvedev used was intended to demonstrate that despite an inability to fully implement this reorganization, Russia is a country with which NATO, particularly the United States, will have to recon as the alliance considers membership for the Ukraine and Georgia, continued use of bases in Central Asia to support the alliance mission in Afghanistan, and the potential deployment of missile defense systems in Eastern Europe.
Rearmament Plan
Prime Minister Medvedev has pledged major increases in military spending, intensifying procurement of nuclear missiles, tanks, fighter aircraft, and a new generation of deep-water warships, including aircraft carriers.
The Russian military has changed little since the Cold War, with a mostly conscript army, top-heavy command structure, low pay for enlisted troops, an undisciplined rank-and-file and ageing military hardware. Russia’s combat support systems lack updated drones, precision weapons, reconnaissance, navigation, communication, and guidance systems. This lack of capable men and material, as well as outdated doctrine and logistics, hampers Russia’s ability to react quickly to international crises. The recent conflict in Georgia illustrated the need for Russia to reorganize its military and increase procurement of new weapons systems to effectively counter 21st century threats and crises.
Despite Medvedev’s announcement, we note that Russia is encumbered by budgetary constraints, hampering its ability to implement structural changes and reforms in the near to medium-term. We assess Russia may be forced to cut its military expenditures in 2010 amid the country’s economic crisis. Any prolonged low of oil prices will further delay the country’s ability to transform its military to the force envisioned by President Medvedev.
Future Outlook
We believe Russia’s rearmament plans reflect a real desires for military transformation and are long overdue. In Russia’s view, some Western countries are engaging Eastern Europe, the Caucasus, and Central Asia without due respect for Russia’s interests. Kremlin leaders, particularly the military establishment, have grown frustrated and seek to re-establish the country’s relevancy in a world far changed from the one in which they were trained to perceive threats.
In this new world, Russia is challenged by the potential for local conflicts and international terrorism, rather than mass armies marching on its borders. Therefore, Russia needs to invest in small, mobile, and quickly deployable forces to counter these threats while upgrading its strategic deterrence against the US.
Russia will continue using bellicose language to send its message of desired inclusion to the US and its NATO allies. It will also increase its efforts to strengthen relations with former Cold War client states to demonstrate its relevancy to international security issues. These steps may satisfy the military establishment, but will do nothing to pay for the updated armed forces the country needs to achieve real security.
