Highlights
– Neither major party will win a majority in India’s general election
– Small parties and coalitions of parties will have the power to decide who runs the country
– This power will slow the pace of economic reform in India
The real power behind India’s new government will not be the party that wins the election. Whichever of the two major parties does scratch out a plurality, it will need to create a coalition with smaller regional, ideological, and caste-based parties in order to govern. From the choice of kingmakers available, we expect the policy direction of India’s next coalition government to be marred by slowed economic reform and stalled integration into the globalized economy.
Elections
In the largest democratic elections in the world, the people of India will be heading to the polls for a five-phase general election from April 16 to May 13. A democracy of over 714 million voters deciding between hundreds of parties to form a coalition Parliamentary government holds a number of possible outcomes. From these potentialities, we foresee democracy on the sub-continent being dictated by the minority over the majority.
Neither of the two major parties will likely take a majority stake in the 543-member Lok Sabha (lower house) in the General election. The two leading parties contesting these elections are the currently governing Indian National Congress Party and its rival the Hindu-nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). Neither party is expected to come close to a majority stake in the new parliament and will have to rely upon creating a coalition of willing partners in order to govern. These governing partners will demand sacrifices of the major party in order to help form a government.
Power Brokers
To counter the two major parties, several coalitions of smaller parties have begun to coalesce based on region, political ideology, and caste. Of these smaller groups, the most powerful appears to be a coalition known as the “Third Front.” This collection of four Communist parties and some small parties from the southern Indian states of Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu, led by former Prime Minister HD Deve Gowda, advocates for what it calls a “democratic and secular” government. This moto strikes at the Congress Party for what the “Third Front” believes are autocratic tendencies and at the BJP for its reliance on religion as a motivating factor in politics. The “Third Front” also pushes for an end to the US-India Nuclear Agreement and a slowdown of economic liberalization.
The Congress Party’s 2004 government was dependent upon a coalition of like-minded, and not-so-like-minded parties. Some of the parties of the “Third Front” were members of that coalition until late 2008 when their departure forced a No-Confidence Vote in the Lok Sabha. That vote, over ratification of the US-India Nuclear Agreement, almost killed the Congress coalition. The parties of the “Third Front” left the governing coalition, forcing a complete reconstruction of the government. We believe such maneuvering between parties inside and outside of government will continue in any future Indian government.
Pushing Elephants
Whether Congress or the BJP wins the election, the “Third Front” will play the role of kingmaker, aligning itself to either of the major parties in order to form the government. With the “Third Front” playing such a powerful role, we believe that its political agenda will become the dominant driving, or stalling, force of future policy. Without its votes, any other agenda will fail. Therefore, the policy of India’s future government will be reliant upon the will of members in the “Third Front” coalition.
One complicating aspect of this kingmaker role for the “Third Front” is the loose-knit construction of this coalition. This is not the first time that a third group has come to the fore of Indian politics, only to shatter upon the rocks of reality when faced with decisions of government. Considering the make-up of the “Third Front,” from Communist and regional parties, there is a strong likelihood that issues of trade, price supports for food, subsidies for gasoline, and relations with the United States will drive a wedge in this alliance of parties as well as between it and its governing partners. Congress and the BJP will use these divisions within the “Third Front” to break off small parties with which either may align to form a government.
In the near term we can expect India to face a complicated electoral cycle with political back-room deal making on a grand scale. We will see small parties dominating the major party coalition government to determine the path of future reforms and policies. In the medium to long-term India will continue to face such fragility of its governing coalitions in its enduring democratic political system.
