Highlights
– Once formidable, now dwindling in size and numbers
– Rebel group nomenclature to be replaced completely with terrorist group
– Suicide attacks likely to continue for near to medium-term
Beginning as a small political movement over twenty-five years ago, the Tamil insurgency rapidly developed into a powerful and highly structured rebel organization. Over time, it managed to secure vast swathes of territory in Sri Lanka’s northern and eastern provinces, establish its own system of governance, garnering international support and sympathy, and even signing a Norwegian-brokered peace accord in 2005 towards establishing a Tamil state.
Since then, however, the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) have been routed from the majority of their territory, staged innumerable suicide attacks that have earned it international condemnation and a listing as a terrorist organization, entrapped civilians as human shields, forcibly recruited children into its ranks, and suffered a number of desertions at its highest level.
While we do not expect the group to be entirely routed in the coming weeks, what organization remains will likely lose any credibility as a political entity worthy of engagement. In the future, we expect LTTE rebels to renew their suicide attacks against the Sinhalese majority in Colombo.
Beginning of the End
Beginning in December 2006, the Commander of the Sri Lankan Army (SLA) and other senior government officials expressed their plans to drive the LTTE out of the Eastern Province of Sri Lanka, and then to use the full strength of the military to defeat the LTTE in the North of the country. Over two years later, it appears, the government may be on the brink of actually achieving its goal.
Recent fighting has left the LTTE in control of less than 30 square kilometers of jungle outside of Mullaitivu, a city in the country’s northeast. Trapped between the SLA and the LTTE are some 100,000 civilians who are running out of food and water with each passing day. Sri Lankan officials claim that the civilians have been trapped in the region as a bulwark against more aggressive shelling, while LTTE statement’s suggest government forces will not discontinue their attack long enough to enable civilians to flee.
With weakening support coming from India’s Tamil community, and an adamant refusal on the part of the Sri Lanakan government to negotiate with what is left of the rebel group, we do not expect a ceasefire to take place until Sri Lankan forces have full control over what remains of LTTE-held territory.
LTTE Forces
No reliable estimates exist for how many LTTE forces remain on the battlefield. Given what remains of LTTE controlled territory, it is unlikely that many new recruits have been brought into the fray. What remains of the LTTE are its most ardent fighters, many of whom will likely continue defending what is left of rebel territory until death or capture – unlikely given the cyanide capsules worn around rebel fighters necks.
While small-arms ammunition, easily acquired and hidden, remains in good supply, larger artillery shells have been spent. The LTTE attempted an airborne suicide attack in February that resulted in two dead and forty wounded. The attack represents a last ditch effort by the group to exploit its dilapidated air power against Sri Lankan government installations. With SLA forces in control of most LTTE jungle runways, it is unlikely that the group is positioned to effectuate any additional attacks, if additional planes even remain in the group’s arsenal.
Outlook
The LTTE is no longer the rebel force that it once was. Forced recruitment will diminish greatly with SLA forces occupying the country’s north and east. International support will is weakening, but will continue, particularly from the ex-pat community in India’s southern Tamil state. Sympathy for the group’s demands will increasingly fall on deaf ears from the international community.
Though badly battered and near broken, we expect the LTTE to sustain and coordinate suicide attacks to target Colombo and other outlying areas in the near to medium-term. The island’s Tamil minority will continue to voice its displeasure with what they perceive to be Sinhalese insincerity towards the group’s suffering for the foreseeable future.
A more muted international concern for the well-being of the country’s Tamil’s will continue to garner some attention at the United Nations, but the group’s grievances will become less of an international concern as terrorist attacks become the groups only possible choice of action.
