Highlights
– Non-nationalist coalition claims 38 seats in regional parliament
– ETA claims elections were “anti-democratic” following the banning of two linked ETA parties
– ETA likely to continue bombings in the near-term to stay relevant in the Basque political spectrum
For the first time in nearly 30 years, a non-nationalist government leader may lead a new government in Spain’s Basque region. The incumbent Basque National Party (PNV) won 30 seats in the Basque parliament while three other smaller nationalist parties won a combined seven seats. Three non-nationalist parties, including prime minister Jose Luis Rodriguez’s Basque Socialist Party (PSE), claimed a combined majority of 38 seats in the 75-seat assembly. This tally gives them a one seat advantage over the PNV coalition. The other two parties joining the PSE include the conservative Popular Party (PP) capturing 13 seats and the Progress and Democracy Party (UPD) taking one seat.
The PNV nationalists could still look to form a grand coalition with the Socialists as the two parties work in a partnership on the national level. Still, this outcome remains unlikely as Socialist leader Patxi Lopez continues to lead a campaign criticizing the nationalists’ quest for sovereignty through self-determination referendums in lieu of seeking practical solutions for the current economic crisis.
Another notable outcome comes at the expense of the Basque region’s radical pro-independence parties. Sunday’s election indicates that the non-violent political agenda is beginning to supersede the agenda of the armed separatist group, Basque Fatherland and Liberty (ETA). Recent ETA threats and a series of ETA attacks in the region have continuously reminded Spanish authorities of the long-term battle against the hard-line separatists.
Banning Parties
This election marks the first time a radical political party linked to ETA will not be represented in the regional parliament. In February 2009 Spain’s Supreme Court banned two pro-independence parties from participating in the election over alleged links to ETA. Following the elections, ETA promptly issued a statement claiming that the elections were “anti-democratic” and accused the court of manufacturing a Socialist victory.
The timing of defeat for the more moderate PNV supporters may be a blessing in disguise. ETA will likely stick to what works, committing a steady chain of small-scale, low intensity, and low risk bomb attacks. In ETA’s view, these attacks are in the name of sovereignty and could subsequently convince the now dejected nationalist PNV supporters that ETA is the more effective voice for the Basque cause. Typically, 10 to 15 percent of Basques supporters vote for ETA linked parties. Although the ban eliminates any chance for ETA linked groups to participate political process, ETA will likely attempt to turn political misfortunes such as the imprisonment of its members in its favor for recruiting in the long-term.
ETA Strategy Evaluation
Just hours before polls opened, Spanish police arrested a suspected ETA member who had been under surveillance for some time. Police arrested the individual in the Basque town of Billabona after they “noticed some suspicious actions that could be linked to the preparation of an imminent bomb attack” (Source). Police uncovered bomb-making material, including a detonator and explosives often used by ETA operatives.
This arrest underlines the group’s relentless, yet desperate, fight to remain relevant. In recent months ETA has committed car bombings and expressed threats of violence to businessmen in the Basque region. Public disdain in the Basque Region for the group’s violent methods is on the rise. ETA’s weaknesses and lack of political influence will be evident in the coming months. Without an affiliated voice in the region’s political process for the first time in nearly 30 years, the group will likely stick to its old tactics of carrying out small-scale bombings targeting government and security institutions. These tactics will continue to put ETA at odds with the growing trend against violence, pushing the group ever father toward political ambiguity.
