Highlights
– Soldiers assassinated President Joao Bernardo Vieira in his palace
– His death is the latest development in four months of violent clashes between the army and the president
– Guinea-Bissau military leaders say no coup will take place; yet civil unrest is likely to occur as opposition leaders fight for leadership position
On March 2, 2009, Guinea-Bissau’s President Joao Bernardo Vieira was gunned down in his presidential palace hours after an explosion killed his longtime rival, General Batiste Tagme na Waie. Although the culprits have not been found, a military statement delivered on public state radio attributed the death to an “isolated group of unidentified soldiers.” Ruling party officials are skeptical, believing the assassination was in retaliation to Gen. Waie’s death the night before. An army spokesman reported that a ten-member commission would manage the army until a new general is appointed. Moreover, the spokesman assured that a military coup d’état would not take place and that the army would remain neutral. According to the constitution, parliament chief Raimundo Pereira is to succeed the president in the event of the latter’s death. There is significant potential for civil unrest and continued political instability in the near to medium-term.
History of Rival Conflict
The former Portuguese colony has suffered multiple coups and attempted assassinations since President Vieira came to power in 1980. The former president ruled Guinea-Bissau for 23 out of the past 29 years. Coming to power after a coup in 1980, Vieira ruled for 19 years until he was forced out at the onset of civil war. He returned from exile in Portugal to run in the country’s 2005 elections and won the vote, despite being part of the minority Papel ethnic group, which represents roughly five percent of the population.
Although the armed forces dismissed claims that the military killed Vieira in revenge for Waie’s assassination the previous day, we believe this was in fact the case as the two men were considered staunch political and ethnic rivals for years, and had previously survived recent assassination attempts.
• In the late 1980s, after coming to power, Vieira blamed a number of the majority ethnic Balanta officers (Waie among them) for a failed coup against him, convicting those involved to death or long prison sentences. Waie was subsequently dropped off on a deserted island off the coast of Guinea-Bissau where he was left for years before he was allowed to return. Vieira officially granted Waie a pardon upon his return.
• The attack on Vieira was the second attempt on his life in recent months. In November 2008, soldiers attacked Vieira’s home with automatic rifles, killing one guard.
• In January 2009, Waie received a call from Vieira asking him to come to his residence immediately. When Waie stepped outside to get into his car, unidentified gunmen opened fire on his vehicle. Waie managed to survive the attack. From that point on he assumed that he was marked by the president for assassination.
Continued Unrest…
The recent deaths will put the country in a political upheaval for the near to mid-term. Though the parliamentary chief is set to take over the presidency, it is not certain that the move will be welcomed by the armed forces. We believe the military will push for a pro-Waie leader, most likely part of the Balanta ethnic group. The coming months will remain politically unstable for the one of the world’s poorest countries.
