Highlights
-Police prepare for anarchist and environmentalist led protests for the April G-20 meeting in London
-Various worker unions and activist groups have organized over economic and political concerns
-Strong likelihood for civil unrest across the United Kingdom in the coming months due to strict credit restraints and a worsening job market
In the coming months, an intensifying economic recession will create a political environment in the United Kingdom (UK) highly susceptible to widespread protests and industrial actions. Subsequent rising unemployment and increased home repossessions are anticipated to increase the chances of widespread civil unrest among the middle class.
The number of unemployed in the country grew by 73,800 in January, the highest level in nearly a decade, with economists estimating that figure to increase until peaking in the second quarter of 2010 (Source). Additionally, the Council of Mortgage Lenders reported that 40,000 people lost their homes in 2008 with an additional 75,000 repossessions anticipated for 2009 (Source).
Police are warning officials that established activists are returning to the streets to “foment unrest”, although they haven’t “had the foot soldiers to actually carry out protests” (Source). A potential flashpoint will be the upcoming G-20 meeting currently scheduled to take place in April in downtown London. Actions will likely center on London’s financial district with demonstrators targeting large businesses, particularly banks that paid large bonuses to executives despite receiving bailout aid.
Political fringe groups are likely to utilize the economic climate to galvanize support for demonstrations. As such, we expect the chances of extremist violence targeting financial and government institutions in demonstrations will likely increase. Highlighted by recent leftist, worker, and university led protests in Greece and France, similar anti-government protests are likely to occur frequently in the UK well into the summer months.
Recent Protests
Since January 2009, worker unions and activist groups have carried out several demonstrations in the UK.
•February 24, 2009: Hundreds of postal workers for Royal Mail protested against government plans to cut costs by 10 percent, potentially costing up to 16,000 jobs.
•February 23, 2009: More than 50 university students occupied a lecture theatre at the University of East London’s Docklands Campus to protest against Israel’s blockade of Gaza.
•February 21, 2009: Nearly 120,000 people attended a peaceful demonstration in Dublin to protest against the government’s response to the economic downturn.
•January 30, 2009: Hundreds of British workers at a dozen refineries in England, Scotland and South Wales, carried out strikes over the use of imported workers at Britain’s third largest oil refinery: the Total Lindsey refinery in Lincolnshire.
•January 30, 2009: Pro-Gaza protesters clashed with police outside the Jewish London Student Centre, near the Euston railway station. Police arrested four demonstrators for public order offenses.
Reclaiming the Streets
As previously reported, environmentalists are planning to hold a protest in London on April 1st, the day that the G-20 leaders arrive. Titled, “Financial Fools Day”, thousands of anti-aviation activists, environmentalists, as well as anarchists, are organizing a series of demonstrations surrounding the event. Police remain concerned that anarchists could stage protests that match the intensity and property damage associated with the 1999 anti-World Trade Organization riots in London.
•In the 1999 “Reclaim the Streets” protest in London, thousands of people flooded London streets and violence quickly ensued after a small group of demonstrators began attacking buildings in the financial district. Police reported that the mob was armed with iron bars and scaffold poles and caused damage costing upwards of 2 million pounds to one of London’s most important financial institutions, the London International Financial Futures and Options Exchange Building. In addition, clashes broke out between anarchists and stock traders employed in the financial district.
We believe the threat of ongoing industrial actions and demonstrations in the UK is growing more severe each week. The International Monetary Fund forecasted that the UK economy would shrink by 2.8 percent in 2009, the worst performance among developed nations (Source). Further, new industrial production data to be released later this week is expected to show the economy contracted at a faster rate than during the last three quarters of 2008.
Firms will increasingly be forced to scale back investment and cut jobs due to sagging demand and credit constraints. As a result, there is a strong likelihood for ongoing civil unrest across the UK in the coming months.