Highlights
-The “Yes” vote won in the term-limit elections in February 2009
-Opposition forces confirm they will persist despite the loss
-Both sides will refocus on upcoming 2010 and 2012 elections in the near-term.
On February 16, 2009, Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez won a referendum vote to allow him to run for reelection without term-limits. More than 16 million citizens were eligible to vote in the election and despite months of escalating tensions over the proposal, elections preceded without any major setbacks form either side.
The referendum was closely followed across Latin America as populist leaders in several countries in the region, including Álvaro Uribe, Colombian’s conservative president, and Nicaragua’s leftist leader, Daniel Ortega, have recently been trying to remove legal barriers to running for re-election.
Despite charges of fraudulent balloting, it is likely that opposition groups will refocus on the upcoming National Assembly elections in 2010 and the Presidential elections in 2012. Additionally, we assess that Chavez’s maintained popularity will rely largely on his ability to sustain current social spending budgets in the medium to long-term, something we view as increasingly difficult given the sharp drop in oil prices in recent months.
Background
Chavez initially proposed the referendum in November 2008 after “Chavista” candidates won a majority of the municipal elections in Venezuela ndicating the scale of his influence in the region. In mid-December 2008, at the initial National Assembly debates over the referendum, Chavez supporters held a large rally in Caracas and submitted approximately 4.7 million signatures to legislative offices in support of the vote.
However, opposition groups have also turned out it great numbers, in a bloc campaign, largely headed by university student groups, for the “No Vote.” The opposition’s principal concern is that the referendum is unconstitutional. According to the Venezuelan Constitution, a bill can only be submitted once in a presidential term of office, as Chavez lost a similar vote to rewrite 69 articles of the Constitution – including measures to abolish term limits in 2007 – the opposition argues that Chavez violated the law.
Results
Polls closed at 600PM on February 15, 2009. With over 94 percent of the votes counted, those in favor of the referendum held 54 percent of the ballots, with 6,003,594 votes, while those opposed managed 45 percent, nearly one million fewer votes. As results were revealed on February 16, 2009, crowds of supporters sang the national anthem beneath a display of fireworks, while Chavez announced from the balcony of the Miraflores Palace, “Long live Venezuela. Long live the Revolution…[These are] the people of Simón Bolívar.”
Accusations of Corruption
Immediately preceding the vote, Chavez and his allies urged opponents to accept the Council’s results, no matter the outcome. The opposition, however, refused the President’s gestures, arguing that it feared that “Chavista” proponents would resort to vote fraud to win. Notably, electoral authorities were forced to explain the voting process by increasing complaints that machines were producing an unusual number of invalid votes, as in the first bulletin at 9:35 in the evening, the president of the National Electoral Council (CNE), reported that with 2251 minutes remaining in the election, approximately 199,044 votes were thrown out.
Other complaints concerned the quality of the indelible ink that was used, which can be deleted with the application of chlorine and would allow individuals to vote more than once. Additionally, several voters were unable to vote when machines canceled their vote; electoral investigations remain ongoing regarding the complaints. About 100 international observers monitored the vote, but neither the Organization of American States (OAS) nor the European Union had official observers in Venezuela.
Outlook
Although, the election remained peaceful, opposition forces confirmed they will continue their campaign against what they view as a dictatorial presidency in the making. Student leaders announced on February 16, 2009, that “the fight was for ideas, principles and democratic values” and “the struggle is eternal and goes beyond an electoral event.”
Opposition groups will likely begin to focus their attention towards upcoming National Assembly elections in 2010, as well as the Presidential elections in 2012 in the near-term. Additionally, as the global economic downturn continues to decrease worldwide demand for oil and other industrial exports, it is likely that the Venezuelan government will be forced to reduce social spending that was just recently increased by 25 percent in 2006. Chavez’s popularity will largely depend on his ability to sustain social spending programs in the medium-term to long-term. Although Venezuela has significant reserves and should be able to withstand several years of reduced federal income from exports, it is likely that Chavez will be unable to provide the social programs he has promised Venezuela’s poor in the long-term. This will likely strengthen the opposition campaign in the medium to long-term.
