Highlights
-Obama administration sees Asia as center of international politics
-Hillary Clinton visits Japan, South Korea, China and Indonesia
-North Korea missile test likely to overshadow other regional issues
Illustrating what the Obama administration views as the most pressing foreign policy concerns facing the United States (US)in the coming year, Hilary Clinton has made Southeast Asia the first stop of her foray into international affairs as Secretary of State.
Having visited Japan on Monday, Secratary Clinton’s itinerary also includes stops in South Korea and China before finishing her regional tour in Indonesia, home to the world’s largest Muslim population.
Her agenda includes talks with Japan regarding its regional security concerns, North Korea’s nuclear weapons program, the issue of economic protectionism in China and terrorism in Indonesia.
The trip represents not only the current administration’s concern about bilateral relations with each, but with regional stability as a whole, while also showing a recognition that the future economic drivers of the global economy may continue to be the developing economies of Southeast Asia.
Foreign Policy In Focus
Despite statements by active generals that Iraq’s internal security organizations will need three more years before they are prepared to deal with insurgencies within the country, a call for more troops in Afghanistan and a referendum in Venezuela that has enabled Hugo Chavez to run for president indefinitely, the Obama administration has chosen to send its Secretary of State to Asia for her first foreign visit.
With China recently surpassing Germany as the world’s third largest economy – and economists predicting it will overtake Japan within five years – investment and trade in the region will play a major role in the future of global economic development in the coming years. It is this recognition that the Obama administration is likely hoping to address with Secretary Clinton’s visit to the region.
While the decision to visit the region bodes well for US/Asian relations, Secretary Clinton is traveling with a bare-bones staff, as most of her principal lieutenants have yet to pass confirmation in the Senate. As such, we expect most of her discussions to be free from any particulars, but rather will be an attempt to lay the groundwork for upcoming dialogue.
The trip indicates a marked difference from that of the previous administration. If successful, which we expect it will be, it will exhibit a greater willingness on the part of the US to address some of the more pressing issues affecting the region.
Major Regional Players
Currently in Japan, and with stops scheduled in South Korea, China and Indonesia, Secretary Clinton’s trip is more an introduction than it is the opportunity to address any of the issues currently affecting the region. Nevertheless, her presence indicates not just to those countries visited, but to the region as a whole, that the US will play a much more active role in the other side of the world in the coming years.
The chief bilateral issues facing Japan and the US revolve mostly around North Korea. As one of the US’s chief economic partners in the region, the relationship between the two countries is largely solid, though base closures remain a concern for many Japanese. Maintaining a strong relationship with Tokyo is imperative for the US, particularly in light of future six-party talks. However, elections scheduled for Japan later this year may complicate matters with Washington.
In South Korea, the US is faced with the hard-line presidency of Lee Myung-bak and increasingly antagonistic rhetoric coming from Pyongyang – North Korea scrapped all previous accords with Seoul in January. While juggling an as of yet unfinished US-Korea trade agreement, Secretary Clinton will be tasked with convincing Seoul to temper its responses.
Secretary Clinton’s visit to Jakarta will lay the groundwork for a later scheduled visit by President Obama. As Indonesia has been largely off the radar for the US, with the exception of noting that the country is home to the world’s largest Muslim population, a visit by the Secretary of State constitutes a significant turn in the potential for increased bilateral relations between the two countries, particularly concerning economic relations and terrorism.
After an earlier phone call with President Hu Jintao – wherein President Obama raised neither the issue of Taiwanese independence, Tibet or human rights – Secretary Clinton will be responsible for showing the US’s commitment to improving ties between the two countries, particularly in light of the global economic condition. Should things go smoothly, as we expect, the opportunity to address major international concerns will increase exponentially after her visit.
North Korea and Beyond
The elephant in the room underlying each stop Secretary Clinton intends to make in the coming days, with the exception of Indonesia, will be the issue of North Korea’s nuclear weapons program.
Having indicated that it possesses the right to fire the country’s longest-range missile, the Taepodong-2, Pyongyang appears to be testing the meddle of President Obama in anticipation of upcoming negotiations. We do not expect Secretary Clinton to make any major announcements regarding the country’s behavior during her trip. However, should North Korea test fire its missile during his visit, we expect Secretary Clinton to voice President Obama’s lack of tolerance for such measures.
Outlook
Reasserting strong diplomatic ties, open to dialogue and mutual exchange, will be the overarching aim of Secretary of State Clinton during her visit to the region. We expect her current trip to be one of stage-setter more than anything else – unless North Korea test-fires its missile wherein President Obama will convey through Secretary Clinton his unwillingness to permit a nuclear-capable North Korea to exist in the region. Barring such an event, however, we expect the trip to show the region that the US will play a much greater role in the region in the coming years. Should the global economic crisis not worsen significantly, resolving major issues affecting the region – namely North Korean nukes – could make large strides in the coming four years.
