Highlights
– President Obama believes in relationship of mutual respect with Iran
– President Ahmadinejad open to dialogue provided they are ‘fair’
– National security assessment likely to develop in the coming months
On February 10, 2009, during a celebration ceremony marking Iran’s Islamic Revolution, President Ahmadinejad indicated that Tehran is ready for talks with the United States (US), provided that they are “fair and based upon mutual respect.”
Amidst chants and banners demonizing the United States and Israel, President Ahmadinejad told the crowd of tens of thousands who were in attendance, “It is quite clear that real change must be fundamental and not tactical. It is clear the Iranian nation welcomes real changes and is ready for dialogue in a climate of equality and mutual respect.”
Ahmadinejad’s comments follow a recent statement by President Obama wherein he praised Iran for its “extraordinary people” and history, while further eluding to a complete reassessment of current US policy towards Iran that could, in the coming months, lead to “face-to-face” talks with Tehran.
In the coming weeks, we expect President Obama’s national security team to present a new engagement policy regarding Iran that will differ markedly from that of the previous administration.
Obama Looking Forward to Talks With Iran
Following multiple campaign speeches, wherein he suggested that under his administration the United States would take a less aggressive and more inclusive approach to foreign policy, President Obama indicated on February 10 that he will be looking for “openings” in the coming months that could lead to “face-to-face” talks with Tehran.
The United States severed ties with Iran after Iranian students stormed the US Embassy in Tehran in 1979 and occupied it for 444 days, holding dozens of American diplomats hostage. Since that time, relations between the two nations have been neither overly hostile nor entirely welcoming. However, tensions grew significantly between the two countries when President Bush listed Iran amongst Iraq and North Korea during his infamous ‘Axis-of-Evil’ speech following the events of September 11th.
Departing immediately from his predecessor, however, on January 20 – during his maiden press conference – President Obama said, “I think there’s the possibility, at least, of a relationship of mutual respect and progress,” when referring to Iran.
President Obama’s conciliatory approach towards Tehran should not suggest that any major initiatives are likely to be forged in the coming weeks, particularly given the current economic climate and the wars in both Iraq and Afghanistan taking priority. However, after the stimulus measure before Congress passes, and Obama addresses a troop transfer from Iraq to Afghanistan, we expect Obama’s national security team to present a series of bilateral measures – particularly focusing on Iran and North Korea – that will welcome dialogue, but at the same time proceed cautiously towards an engagement of each.
Tensions Remain Over Nuclear Issue
Simmering beneath the conciliatory rhetoric espoused by both leaders is the issue of Iran’s nuclear program. Tehran says that is nuclear program is for civilian, energy-generating purposes only. However, the United States and several other countries – most notably Israel – are fearful that the program is being used to conceal a covert weapons program.
Iran, as a signatory to the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty (NPT), is entitled to develop a nuclear energy program pursuant to the third pillar of the agreement. To date, only India, Pakistan and Israel are not signatories to the treaty – North Korea agreed to the treaty but later withdrew after testing its own nuclear weapon.
Recently, the United States advocated that the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) – an entity established to facilitate the safe transfer of nuclear technology for peaceful purposes – grant an exemption to India despite not being a signatory to the NPT. The move, if eventually granted by the NSG, will likely pose a serious impediment to future US-Iranian negotiations regarding its current nuclear program.
Despite the alleged hypocrisy that Tehran sees in the NSG’s waiver, we expect President Obama’s future policy towards the regime to focus initially more on the country’s alleged funding of terrorist groups like Hezbollah as a means of making inroads towards the nuclear issue.
Outlook
The Obama administration is likely to take a markedly different approach to foreign policy from the previous administration, at least in terms of rhetoric. In practice, however, we expect President Obama to maintain the status quo in terms of current bilateral relations – particularly with states like Iran and North Korea – until more pressing domestic economic concerns are addressed. Further, a rapid realignment of his predecessor’s foreign policy would likely be met with stern opposition from some members of the Democratic Party as well as many members of the Republican Party, making serious policy changes unlikely in the near-term.