Highlights
– Hamid Karzai’s popularity expected to continue declining
– Opposition candidates unlikely to gather enough support to win August 2009 elections
– United States-Afghan relations expected to worsen in near to mid-term
On January 29, 2009, Afghanistan announced that presidential elections will be delayed until August 20, 2009 due to the deteriorating security situation and rising violence, especially in country’s volatile south.
According to Independent Election Commission chief Azizullah Ludin, August 20, 2009 was chosen for the Presidential poll after consulting with both Afghan and international security forces. There is hope that the upcoming surge in United States (US) forces in Afghanistan will result in a decline in violence and create a more suitable environment to hold elections. The surge also comes at a time when President Barack Obama is ordering a comprehensive review of US strategy in Afghanistan, which is likely to result in increased aid for developing infrastructure.
Western nations and North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) forces in Afghanistan see successful elections as a key marker of progress in light of a growing Taliban insurgency in the south and east, and encroaching into areas closer to the capital Kabul. NATO officials claim the new election date will give the alliance enough time to deploy sufficient reinforcements to help protect voters and polling stations. However, while an increase in US troops will result in greater security, there are certain areas in the south and east that are unlikely to become secure enough to hold free and fair elections. As a result, Taliban militants will likely step up attacks targeting voters and polling infrastructure in the run up to the August Presidential vote to derail elections and create further instability.
Karzai’s Growing Unpopularity
Afghan President Hamid Karzai’s five-year term officially ends on May 22, 2009, but officials within the country claim they are preparing to make provisions for interim leadership until the vote takes place in August. Karzai is expected to run for re-election, despite growing unpopularity among the Afghan people and his Western backers.
Hamid Karzai, an ethnic Pashtun from the south, has been leading Afghanistan since US-led NATO forces overthrew the Taliban following the September 11, 2001 attacks. However, his inability to form a unified strategy to stem rising Taliban-violence, especially in southern and eastern Afghanistan, has resulted in growing discontent among Western nations and his once powerful support base. Karzai has grown frustrated with his Western backers, strongly criticizing US and NATO forces for launching air strikes that are resulting in rising civilian casualties.
Despite the election of Barack Obama, the relationship between the US and Karzai is unlikely to significantly improve, as the level of distrust and lack of confidence has reached a point possibly beyond reconciliation. As a result, a Karzai victory in Afghanistan’s elections would likely translate into further complications in US-Afghan relations.
Opposing Karzai
Several Afghan politicians have indicated they are willing to run against Karzai, but have revealed few other details. Some of the potential candidates include former Interior Minister Ali Jalali, Member of Parliament and planning minister Dr. Ramazan Bashardost (2004-2005), a senior fellow in foreign policy at the Brookings Institute and Finance Minister Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai (2002-2004), and Foreign Minister Dr. Abdullah (2001-2006.)
Despite growing discontent with the West and increased unpopularity in Afghanistan, the candidates do not pose a clear challenge to the re-election of Hamid Karzai. None of the current candidates are likely to gain enough support from the majority Pashtuns, who are the traditional rulers of the country. Without support from the Pashtuns, the leader of Afghanistan would be unable to govern effectively.
Election Outlook
While thus far none of the candidates represent a clear threat to Karzai, perceived corruption and inability to stem growing violence are major qualms against the Afghan President and are hampering his attempts to unify the country. The election of President Obama is likely to result in a deterioration in near to mid-term relations, largely because the US President is expected to demand more action from Karzai, which is unlikely to be greeted with enthusiasm in Kabul.
Afghans largely believe that Karzai is too weak to govern, primarily because all major decisions need NATO approval and the Afghan army largely remains under the control of the US Department of Defense (DoD). Afghanistan’s heavy reliance on Washington ultimately weakens the post of the Presidency, something that is likely to change following the August 2009 elections, and especially if Karzai is ousted by another candidate.
Due to an inability of most other candidates to gather enough support to defeat Karzai, he is expected to be re-elected despite his growing unpopularity. However, we expect an effort to strengthen the role of the presidency in the long-term – . with Taliban-led violence preventing any significant changes in the near to medium-term. Until violence subsides and stability is established in parts of the south and east, NATO, particularly the US, will continue dictating defense and aid development policies.
Given the widespread public perception that Karzai is unwilling to combat corruption, the Afghan President must step up efforts to cleanse his government of corrupt behavior. His inability to do so has raised questions over his ability to govern Afghanistan at a time of growing concerns over security and the economic crisis. While we do not anticipate any drastic measures on the part of Karzai to eliminate corruption from his government in the near to mid-term, we expect opposition candidates’ inability to gather enough support will ultimately result in a Karzai victory.
