Highlights
– Active duty military officers, retired generals among dozens arrested
– Prime Minister among several leaders allegedly to be targeted for assassination
– Investigation likely to increase in scope as EU monitors watch for improved judicial transparency
Last week, a Turkish court widened the investigation into the controversial Ergenekon probe as it ordered the detainment of 33 suspects, to include four active duty military officers, two retired four-star generals, and a former police chief. Police later released 16 of the suspects. On Monday, January 12, police also detained a prominent journalist and arrested a retired colonel. Since the investigation started in June 2007, more than 100 individuals including military officers, lawyers, university professors, and journalists have been indicted on charges of belonging to Ergenekon, an alleged terrorist organization. According to prosecutors and the moderate Islamist ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP), the ultranationalist network is accused of planning a series of high-level assassinations and bombings, hoping to destabilize the country and subsequently provoke a military coup leading to the removal of the Islamist-rooted government.
Turkey’s accession bid into the European Union (EU) is playing a large role in the ongoing investigation. Last week, the European Parliament Rapportuer assigned to Turkey voiced support for the ongoing investigation and encouraged Turkish authorities to fully uncover the organization’s networks that reach into the state structure. As the EU evaluates whether Turkey is implementing the required legislative reforms, which includes lessening the military’s political influence, the outcome of the trial will indicate whether the judiciary is serious about transparency and ridding the country from its corrupt political bodies. However, it remains unlikely that a simple removal of the military’s retired and corrupt members will have a long-term impact on the military’s influence in political affairs.
Evidence Building
From the opposition’s viewpoint, the trial remains controversial as the first indictment in 2007 failed to produce concrete evidence that could match the serious allegations of plotting to overthrow the government. Opposition parties also claim the AKP is retaliating against an attempt to outlaw the ruling party in 2008 for anti-secular activities.
• Several of the suspects detained over the previous week, including one of the generals, played a role in the removal of an Islamist party from government in 1997, which included current President Abdullah Gul as a cabinet minister at the time of the removal.
At the start of the trial, hundreds of protesters converged on the courtroom in support of the defendants. More recently, the Judges and Prosecutors Association (YARSAV) went as far as to harshly criticize the AKP over the probe saying the handling resembles, “the eras of Hitler and Mussolini” (Source).
However, the latest wave of arrests has uncovered evidence and details of the alleged coup plans. The latest detentions have also revealed the alleged assassination hit list. According to prosecutors, police wiretaps recorded phone conversations that detailed preparations for a number of assassinations that were designed to lead to a coup around the upcoming local elections scheduled for March 29, 2009. Included in the alleged hit list were the prime minister, members of the Supreme Court of Appeals, Alevi and Armenian community leaders, and a number of journalists (Source).
Officers say a sketch from one of the detained suspects detained last week led them to uncover a weapons cache comprised of grenades, plastic explosives and ammunition near a park on the outskirts of Ankara. Separately, police uncovered another cache, which included automatic weapons, hand grenades, flamethrowers, and plastic explosives.
Outlook
Since Turkey adopted a multiparty system in the 1950s, the military has deposed four elected governments. In the eyes of Turkey’s secular nationalists, the current Ergenekon probe is threatening to unseat the military as the country’s untouchable defender of its secularist foundation and ideals. This amount of public scrutiny is an unsettling new phenomenon for the military. Leaders of the armed forces met in Ankara following the first wave of detentions and the military’s weekly news conference was cancelled last week without an explanation. Despite the probe’s serious implications of senior level corruption within the military, there is little chance that the military would engage in a coup in the near to mid-term.
Nonetheless, recent polling suggests public support for the AKP is on the decline (Source). According to a poll by the Political Researcher Strategy and Development Center, support for the AKP has dropped to roughly 30 percent from 45 percent since the local elections in 2004. It is likely that reforms such as the attempt to lift the ban on Islamic headscarves at universities and the launching the country’s first 24-hour Kurdish language television station have alarmed secularists and Islamists alike.
With EU monitors keeping a close watch on the trial, the scope of the investigation will likely increase in the near-term. However, even if the trial secures convictions for the coup conspirators, corrupt political networks in the military will extend beyond the Ergenekon investigaiton.
Moreover, accession negotiations with the bloc have progressed slowly as Turkey has only successfully closed one chapter on policy since it was an official candidate in 1999. With only 10 policy areas of its 35-chapter accession package officially opened, Turkey faces an uphill battle for EU accession in the long-term.
