Highlights
– Government reports of a new generation of leftist extremists
– Car burnings up 30 percent on New Year’s Eve
– Global economic downturn likely to intensify politically charged climate in France in the near-term
The British Sunday newspaper, The Observer, has recently reported that France’s domestic intelligence service is discussing an “elevated threat” from an “international network” and “a rebirth of the violent extreme left (Source).” Recently obtained government reports warn of a strong presence of a new generation of leftist activists in France, with many holding links to activists in Italy, Greece, Germany and the United Kingdom. According to government documents viewed by the British paper, officials increasingly fear widespread unrest in France, similar in scope to the anti-government protests that erupted across Greece a month ago.
• The unprecedented protests in Greece are estimated to have cost at least US$1.3 billion in damages (Previous Report).
Following the Greek protests, sympathy protests emerged across major cities in Europe. As previously reported, these subsequent protests lacked the personal connection to the wrongful death of a Greek teenager in Athens. Nevertheless, the ability of far-left Greek groups to influence and mobilize their counterparts in other countries, including France, represents a serious concern for French authorities.
France’s political atmosphere will likely become increasingly tense in the coming months. The current global economic downturn, a rising unemployment rate, and unpopular public policy reforms enacted by President Nicolas Sarkozy’s administration will make France the next possible epicenter for unwavering civil unrest by disadvantaged youths in the mid-term.
Sending a Message
In November 2008, police arrested two people suspected of being the ringleaders of a series of acts of vandalism that shut down the high-speed TGV railway lines. The arrests underscore the government’s zero tolerance approach to violent direct actions. The seriousness of the charges, sabotaging the TGV and “associating with wrongdoers with terrorist aims,” will likely deter most leftist activists from taking similar actions. However, radicalized leftist groups will likely continue to conduct such activities in the mid to long-term.
Prosecutors currently accuse one of the ringleaders of anonymously writing the book, The Coming Insurrection. Published in 2007, the book has been translated into English and was found on American and British anarchist websites. The book offers instructions on sabotaging railways and other means of vandalism to weaken the power of the police. The two suspects are believed to have taken part in several demonstrations in Germany, the United States, and Britain.
A Blazing Tradition
On New Year’s Eve, the destructive capacity of France’s dissatisfied youth became increasingly evident. The Interior Ministry reported a 30 percent increase in the number of cars burned on December 31, 2008, compared to the holiday the previous year. According to the figures, 1,147 cars were burned overnight across the country, up from 878 cars during the previous holiday (Source). Anticipating potential widespread unrest during the holiday, the government mobilized 35,000 police officers, roughly an increase of 7,000 more officers than the previous year.
A majority of the arson attacks occurred on the outskirts of major French cities. For example, 12 cars burned in the relatively well-policed, affluent and central Parisian neighborhoods. Conversely, disadvantaged Parisian housing neighborhoods on the outskirts of the capital accounted for 422 destroyed cars. Vandals also set dozens of cars ablaze in Strasbourg, Lille, Toulouse and Nantes during the holiday.
Given the politically charged climate in France and Europe, a 30 percent increase on the annual car-burning holiday is an alarming figure for officials. However, vandals burned 15 percent less cars in the first 11 months of 2008, compared to the overall 43,000 cars that were set ablaze during 2007. Nevertheless, the annual ritual of arson provides a glimpse of the potential destruction an unwavering and coordinated wave of civil unrest could inflict.
Appeasing the Students
In late December, the French government announced it would postpone moving forward on the controversial educational reforms introduced in 2006. Among the most controversial of the proposals included cutting thousands of jobs and cutting classroom hours. French students and unions have continuously conducted demonstrations and walkouts in protest of the proposed reforms. Recently, more than 150,000 students took part in peaceful protests against the reforms. Most protests were peaceful, excluding small-scale clashes that occurred at a demonstration in Lyon. The decision to pull back on the reforms represents a major concession for the Sarkozy administration. While the decision to pull back did not anger unions, it will not likely reduce the probability of future protests in the mid-term, as a majority of the country’s students and faculty remain opposed to the sweeping reforms.
In the near-term, European nations will likely continue to weather coordinated demonstrations as the global economic downturn deepens. For France, high levels of unemployment, unpopular public policy reforms, wage cuts, and the rising price of goods, will likely continue to fuel anti-government sentiment and potentially violent direct actions in the near to mid-term.
