In 2008, three major issues including Islamic extremism, environmental activism, and ultranationalism emerged as the most influential security threat in the region. These issues will likely have the most influence on the European security environment in 2009.
An Ideal Target Among Extremists
In 2008, Islamic extremism represented one of Europe’s toughest challenges. Islamic extremism continues to flourish and is deeply entrenched in several European societies, mostly concentrated in segregated communities of second and third generation Muslim immigrants. Increased military operations in Muslim nations, lack of economic opportunities for immigrant communities, and escalating ultranationalist and anti-Islam sentiment continue to raise the risk of attack on European soil. Security agencies in Denmark, the Netherlands, and the United Kingdom all warned of a high threat level of a terrorist attack occurring within their respective borders. Some notable anti-terror investigations in 2008 include:
• France – December 2008: A previously unknown group called “Afghan Revolutionary Front” placed old dynamite sticks in a famous shopping store in Paris.
•Italy – December 2008: Counterterrorism police arrested two Moroccans suspected of planning attacks on soft targets in the northern province of Monza.
•Spain – January 2008: Authorities arrested 14 mainly Pakistani suspects in Barcelona on charges of planning attacks against the city’s public transportation system.
•Denmark – February 2008: Police arrest five suspected Islamist extremists for plotting to murder Kurt Westergaard, one of the 12 cartoonists commissioned by the Jyllands-Posten newspaper to produce cartoons of the Prophet Mohammad in 2006.
Current figures suggest that the scope of combating Islamic extremism will be a long-term challenge.
•In France, Muslims make up half of the nation’s 64,000-prison population. Currently, more than 1,100 people are serving prison terms for terrorist-related offenses (Previous Report).
•In Germany, the Interior Ministry estimates there are roughly 700 people in the country who may be involved in active circles of extreme Islam activity (Source).
•In the United Kingdom, a MI5 document leaked to the press found that “some thousands” of extremists are active in the UK. The document claims a majority of extremists are young and British-born and have been trained at terrorist training camps abroad. The document also highlights that the main extremist concentrations are currently in London, Birmingham, and Luton (Source).
European law enforcement agencies will also look to increase the sweeping powers of anti-terror legislation. However, two recent setbacks suggest privacy rights may overshadow calls for greater legislative powers to fight terrorism. In the United Kingdom, Prime Minister Gordon Brown’s Counter Terrorism bill, a bill that would extend the period police can hold terror suspects from 28 days to 42 days, suffered an embarrassing setback in October after being rejected in the House of Lords. Similarly in Germany, the Federal Bureau of Criminal Investigations (BKA) bill was turned down in the upper chamber of parliament after cruising through the lower chamber of the Budestag. The bill would have allowed authorities to step up clandestine activities on terrorist or criminal suspects including video surveillance, bugging telephones, searching homes and requesting data from third parties.
Outlook for 2009
We believe the threat of Islamic terrorism will continue to be significant in Europe in 2009. Foreign military operations in Afghanistan and controversial anti-Islam rhetoric and propaganda such as Dutch politician Geert Wilders’s anti-Islam film and upcoming tour will continue to be a focal point for Islamic extremists in the region.
Popular public places and modes of transportation will be likely targets. Furthermore, the success of the latest coordinated attacks in Mumbai suggests extremists may focus on targeting high profile hotels in the long-term. However, recent reports in the United Kingdom suggest that “dirty” bomb or bio-attack are becoming increasingly likely in the long-term. Nonetheless, we believe there will likely be an attempted attack on European soil in 2009.
Eco-Activism to Surge in 2009
On a global level, international climate change groups have increasingly conducted disruptive protests against big oil, coal businesses, and the aviation industry. We anticipate this trend to pick up momentum in Europe through 2009.
Notable direct actions include:
•December 2008: In Denmark, Greenpeace activists blocked the offloading of coal from a cargo ship docked.
•November 2008: Tens of thousands of environmental activists protested across Germany along the railway line of a shipment of treated nuclear waste.
•November 2008: In Poland, Greenpeace activists also conducted a series of protests operations at a coal-fired power plant near Konin.
Airports have also become a popular focal point for demonstrations on climate change.
•December 9: Forty-nine protesters of the climate change group, Plane Stupid, caused travel delays in early December when they cut through the perimeter fence of Stansted Airport and chained themselves as a makeshift barrier close to the runway.
•October 2008: Nearly 600 environmental activists protested on the steps of Britain’s parliament in London while more than 3,000 activists demonstrated at Heathrow Airport in June 2008.
In the United Kingdom, police recently warned of a rising threat posed by radical eco-activists targeting companies who have been labeled as major polluters or catalysts of climate change. Further, British authorities revealed that eco-activists are now increasingly researching new target companies, shareholders, and financiers.
Extreme Actions
In England, demonstrators continue to target Kingsnorth, Kent, the proposed location for Britain’s first coal powered power plant in 30 years. An unknown activist recently infiltrated Kingsnorth station and tampered with the power station’s main control room. The perpetrator climbed a razor wired, electrified security fence, walked into the station and crashed a 500MW turbine, effectively halting all power from the coal and oil powered plan for four hours.
•We do not foresee this type of act to become a common occurrence. However, the relative ease at which the activist was able to pull off the sabotage will likely encourage extreme climate change activists to attempt schemes of similar magnitude in the long-term.
Although anti-climate change groups have not carried out an orchestrated campaign of violent attacks, a series of attacks in August targeting seven German banks highlights the dangers posed by a movement that continues to gain momentum. In August 2008, members of a radical environmental advocacy group claimed responsibility for several acts of vandalism targeting the branches of seven German banks in Berlin over alleged connections to the British coal company, UK Coal.
Outlook for 2009
We anticipate that climate change groups throughout Europe will continue to draw thousands of more supporters in the coming months. Consequently, disruptive activism and large-scale demonstrations in major European cities will also likely increase in the mid to long-term. Radical environmental groups will likely continue to conduct research on new targets to facilitate their disruptive, and potentially violent, campaigns against energy companies and the financial institutions that support them.
Ultranationalism on the Rise
Anti-immigrant sentiment appears to be on the rise in many parts of Europe. Italy has seen numerous outbreaks of anti-Roma violence, while families in Hungary have been targeted in numerous xenophobic attacks in recent months. In the Czech Republic, hundreds of far-right supporters planned to attack a northern town’s Roma population, but instead clashed with a thousand-strong police force. And in Germany, the opening of the nation’s largest mosque was met with an anti-Islam conference organized by a far-right group fearful of the “Islamization” of Europe.
There is also a growing concern among authorities in Germany that far-right extremist groups are growing bolder. The recent stabbing of a police chief in Passau by a neo-Nazi skinhead underscores a changing environment, with police increasingly becoming a target for far-right extremists.
Moreover, the attack presents a dilemma for German officials as they question whether to pursue a ban of the far-right National Democratic Party (NPD). Currently, the NPD holds legislative seats in two of the 16 German states, yet does not hold representation at the federal level. While banning the party may not directly stop attacks, it would hinder activity within the far-right scene. However, the overall scope of neutralizing the rise of far-right extremism will be difficult for German authorities as there are 31,000 members of far-right groups in Germany.
Outlook for 2009
Europe’s growing immigrant population and the constant threat of terrorism are significant factors contributing to the increase in xenophobic behavior. Many far-right groups associate and blame impoverished immigrant communities for their support of terrorism and their respective nation’s high level of crime or poverty. This has created racially charged environments in several countries that have resulted in far-right marches and attacks on immigrants. Consequently, these actions have further alienated immigrant populations and will likely only further make immigrants susceptible to radicalization.
As European economies continue to slow and contract in 2009, far-right extremist groups will likely up their anti-immigrant sentiment and rhetoric to capitalize on the growing dissatisfaction of native Europeans. Consequently, as governments cut more jobs and economic conditions worsen, xenophobic and ultranationalist behavior will likely surge in the region in 2009.
