In 2008, Asia witnessed a number of major political upheavals, civil wars, devastating terrorist attacks, civil unrest on a countrywide scale and an unprecedented economic crisis. The future remains uncertain for 2009, but hope continues that incremental gains can be made in governance and institution building for many nations throughout the region.
Political Dissension in Thailand and Bangladesh
Thailand
In 2009, we expect to see an uptick in political bickering, particularly in Thailand where we expect violent clashes between the People’s Alliance for Democracy (PAD) and the People’s Power Party (PPP) to increase in the coming months.
The appointment of Thailand’s latest prime minister, Abhisit Vejjajiva, while having a short-term pacifying effect on Thai politics, will likely fail to appease hardliners within PAD. Further, Abhisit’s failure to connect to the rural masses that continue to support Thaksin Shinawatra will likely be met with large-scale protests and strikes.
PAD’s eight-month long protest, which included a siege and occupation of Government House and culminated in the eight-day seizure of the country’s main international airport, represents only one-half of the Thai electorate. Equally as strong, though not as well financed or organized, is the PPP, which continues to support Shinawatra and his allies. Should Abhisit fail to connect with the largely rural support base of the PPP, we are likely to see protests of an equal size and scope as those that were witnessed for the better part of 2008.
As a result, we expect corruption and cronyism to increase in Thai governance as both parties attempt to sway policy makers through graft and bribery. PAD’s attempts to disenfranchise Thailand’s rural population will slowly move the country away from being a state governed by the rule-of-law and will in turn drive away foreign investment.
Additionally, though the King has managed to mollify otherwise recalcitrant political parties in the past, his ailing health has reduced his influence of late. Should the King pass away in 2009 as we expect, his son, Crown Prince Maha Vajiralongkorn will succeed him. At present, Vajiralongkorn commands less respect than his father, and will not likely have the influence to settle what we anticipate to be a year of major political infighting which will likely result in large-scale civil disobedience and many deaths.
Bangladesh
In Bangladesh, we are likely to see the country’s two main political parties grow increasingly vitriolic towards one another in the coming year. The probable victory of Sheikh Hasina Wajed’s left-of-center Awami League in Bangladesh’s upcoming parliamentary elections is likely to be met with an increase in religious-violence as supporters of the losing Bangladesh National Party (BNP) seek to increase the role Islam plays in Bangladeshi political decision-making.
From 1991 until 1996, Khaleda Zia’s center-right BNP won a plurality of the seats in the Jatiyo Sangshad – Bangladeshi parliament – and formed a ruling coalition with Zia as prime minister. Following numerous accusations of voting irregularity, Sheikh Hasina’s Awami League came to power and ruled until 2001. In both cases, the opposition party would regularly boycott parliamentary proceedings and accuse the other of vote rigging and other nefarious behavior. Again in 2001, Zia returned to power whereupon the country faced its first instance of a suicide bombing attack in 2005. The following year, to address growing violence throughout the country, a caretaker government was appointed and elections were suspended until this year’s upcoming election.
We expect the back-and-forth of Bangladeshi politics to continue over the next year, with Sheikh Hasin’s Awami League coming to power in December. Her victory will likely result in accusations of voter irregularities – despite the caretaker government’s efforts to clean up voter lists – and increased violence by members of the since disbanded Islamic parties operating in Bangladesh.
Fighting in Sri Lanka and the Philippines Likely to Continue
Sri Lanka
By early 2009 we expect to see Kilonochchi, the administrative capital of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE), to fall to Sri Lankan government forces. The collapse of the rebel group’s base of operations will drive the fighters underground. In the following months, we expect to see a more decentralized governing structure with the LTTE encouraging isolated cells of rebel fighters to increase suicide attacks against government installations throughout the country.
Additionally, despite what at first appeared to be serious efforts by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh to help facilitate a resolution to the struggle in late 2008, it seems that India views the Sri Lankan fighting as an internal issue not requiring foreign intervention. While India does possess a large Tamil ex-patriot community, it is unlikely that their efforts to persuade Singh to push for a resolution to the conflict will gain much traction in the coming year.
Philippines
We expect the southern Philippines, particularly Mindanao, to see an increase in Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) attacks throughout the region as the group continues to pursue greater autonomy from a reluctant government in Manila.
With the collapse of the Memorandum of Agreement – a deal covering ancestral domain of some local Muslim communities – and the disbanding of the ceasefire agreement by the Supreme Court, negotiations between the Filipino government and MILF members are likely to stall for the foreseeable future. Further, hard-line MILF fighters are likely to take advantage of the collapse in negotiations and increase attacks throughout Mindanao in the coming year.
Chinese and Japanese Economies Likely to Slow Significantly
While a minor border dispute between China and Japan will continue without resolution, we expect the two countries to focus predominantly on their own internal economic welfare.
Japan
In Japan, the world’s second largest economy, we expect the government to work quickly to make good use of the US$500 billion stimulus package – focusing on direct pay-outs to families and relief packages for business – but will fail to exit its recession during 2009.
Prime Minister Taro Aso will likely pursue similar efforts as those exhibited around the world to address the global financial crisis – focusing on infrastructure development, lowering interest rates along with other efforts to keep liquidity high – but it is unlikely the Bank of Japan will be able to bring the country out of recession in 2009. In reality, the country is not likely to emerge from its recession until late 2010.
Despite the economic downturn affecting Japan, we do not expect the country to undergo any massive protests or violent demonstrations as a result. As the stimulus measures of other nation’s, particularly the US, begin to take effect, Japanese exports are likely to climb, slowly improving the nation’s growth rate.
China
Likewise in China, we expect the world’s largest exporter to focus more internally as other countries, particularly the US, struggle to purchase Chinese goods. While China will continue to experience growth in the coming year, the country’s growth rate is likely to be around five to six percent, half of what it has been in the past several years. While a growth rate of five to six percent would exceed expectations in the US, such a level would be considered a disaster in China.
The economic downturn has resulted in demonstrations and protests – not uncommon in China – beginning to proliferate, as laid-off factory-workers join dispossessed farmers, environmental campaigners and victims of police harassment in taking to the streets. Such actions will likely continue throughout 2009 as both rural farmers and the urban working class become increasingly agitated with their worsening economic condition.
While many analysts foresee the economic decline as an opportunity for China to strengthen its government institutions – decreasing censorship and bringing greater rule-of-law to the its rural communities – we anticipate Chinese leadership to retrench in 2009 and wait for the global financial crisis to pass in lieu of instituting any radical government alterations.
The North Korean Riddle
Lastly, despite speculation that North Korea’s leader Kim Jong Il may have suffered a severe stroke, we do not foresee any radical changes in the reclusive country’s leadership or system of government, even in the event of his death. Pyongyang is not likely to make an announcement regarding Kim’s health during 2009 as it continues to work to groom a successor – in the interim a military commission, and in the long-term Kim’s brother-in-law, Chang Song Taek.
As far as the nuclear question in North Korea is concerned, we do not anticipate much ground to be gained over the issue of decommissioning Pyongyang’s nuclear activities during the first year of the Obama administration. In reality, Kim Jong Il is likely to attempt to detonate another nuclear weapon or at the very least fire another long-range missile capable of carrying a nuclear weapon to show the new US administration that it demands to be treated as a nuclear power – though its capabilities continue to be limited.
