New and Stronger Counter-Terrorism Efforts in North Africa
The al-Qaeda Organization in the Islamic Maghreb (AOIM) made a large impact with its operations in early to mid-2008, killing hundreds of Algerian security forces and innocent civilians. Likely to be one of AOIM’s most emboldened years for attacks, the group conducted a number of large-scale suicide attacks targeting a police academy, Western employees, and security barracks (Terrorist Attack, Terrorist Attack, and Terrorist Attack).
However, post-holiday attacks have fizzled for the ambitious group, having carried out only four smaller-scale attacks since celebrations that coincided with the September 2008 Ramadan holidays. Algerian forces, in collaboration with US counter-terrorism officials and efforts from neighboring Morocco, have successfully arrested and foiled record-breaking amounts of militants and attacks, respectively.
•We anticipate that Algerian forces will increase anti-terrorism efforts to continue countering AOIM in 2009.
Moreover, an additional frontline on the fight against terror will take center stage in Africa in 2009 in Mali. German Army Green Berets trained soldiers in Mali for two-weeks in November 2008. Malian officials are concerned about the country’s inability to battle militants, as the northern dessert has hosted a number of AOIM training camps and has been the source for funneling weapons into Algeria, as well as raising funds for operations.
In response to the nation’s plea, the US Agency for International Development is spending close to US$9 million on counterterrorism programs there, including building 12 FM radio stations to alert residents of possible threats and to air radio soap operas promoting peace and tolerance. As a result of all these improvements, we expect North African nations to be more cooperative in the fight against terrorism next year.
Somalia’s Pirates Draw More International Attention
Piracy off the coast of Somalia rose to unprecedented levels in 2008, with more than 130 ships attacked, and over 40 successful hijackings. Somali pirates garnered upwards of US$100 million in ransom payments. Several high-profile hijackings reluctantly brought the issue to the center of the world’s attention, such as the seizure of a Ukrainian ship in September 2008, carrying tanks and automatic weapons to Kenya, and the hijacking of the Saudi Arabian Aramco oil tanker in December 2008 (Maritime Incident and Maritime Incident).
•Additionally, piracy has struck a crippling blow to shipping by causing insurance rates to skyrocket, and will likely increase shipping rates further in 2009.
Dozens of foreign governments have been spurred to intensify their efforts to curb piracy by sending naval forces to the region. With piracy continuing to flourish, it can be expected more nations will join the campaign in 2009 by deploying fleets to protect their commercial ships and target pirates (Previous Report).
It is less certain, however, whether any foreign government will act on the recent United Nations (UN) authorization for land operations on Somali territory to target pirate bases. Although the United States sponsored the resolution, land action is strongly opposed by military leaders, and it seems unlikely that officials will be willing to initiate such perilous missions and risk a repeat of the 1993 “Black Hawk Down” incident . Air strikes are a possibility, but would still be a bold escalation of the current conflict.
What is certain, however, is that pirates will continue to launch attacks despite the presence of foreign warships. Poverty and destitution are powerful motivators for Somali pirates, and in the absence of any international legal procedures for prosecuting those who have been captured, many are simply returned to the coast and released. Foreign naval forces may eventually make a dent in the number of pirate attacks as more countries join their ranks, but thus far they have been largely unable to do so.
•More likely, however, is the adoption of a UN Resolution regarding the prosecution of pirates captured while at sea. Under current maritime law, there is no legal apparatus in place to bring pirates to justice, but we believe this will be directly addressed in the first quarter of 2009.
Nigeria Battles “Oil Wars” On Two Fronts: MEND and Angola
The primary threat to stability in Nigeria remains the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND) in 2009. Millitants will continue to target Western-based oil companies next year. A number of “peace talks” took place in 2008, none of which lasted long enough to bring forth any hope of real truce. MEND infamously dubbed its battle with foreign oil companies and the Nigerian government as the “oil wars,” promising to disrupt the flow of oil and oil profits to the West.
•As predicted, MEND attacks and hijackings of oil vessels have cut oil output significantly in 2008, and we expect further disruption to oil output in 2009.
A major consequence of perpetual MEND attacks has been the reduction of Nigeria’s oil reserves, which are depleting by more that two percent per year. However, Angola, the newest Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) member and leader since January 2008, may out pace Nigeria for number one oil exporter in Africa during the coming year (Previous Report).
•According to the International Monetary Fund, Angola’s oil output is projected to “surpass two million barrels a day next year and increase 90 percent from 2005 levels by 2010.”
We believe Nigeria’s internal conflicts, coupled with decreasing international oil prices, will increase the likelihood that Angola will surpass the nation’s long-time held high export rate in 2009.
Mugabe’s Reign Likely to End, Cholera Spreads Further
Zimbabwe’s 84-year-old leader, Robert Mugabe, has faced serious pressure to step down from his 28-years of authoritarian rule. Under Mugabe, Zimbabwe has been trapped inside a downward spiral since the March and follow-up June 2008 controversial elections. A major contributor to Zimbabwe’s decline is the economy’s rising inflation, which has reached an incomprehensible 165,000 percent, making the cost of bread over 100 million Zimbabwean dollars.
•As angry soldiers rioted through the streets of Harare in December 2008, we believe more unrest and mass protests are ahead in 2009, especially if Mugabe continues to refuse to step down from office. We believe, however, Mugabe will be forced to leave office, as European Union (EU) and United Nations (UN) officials have continually pressed for his resignation.
In addition to mass unrest, a cholera outbreak beginning in August 2008 has killed over 1100 Zimbabweans, and has spread into neighboring South African countries, like Zambia, Botswana, and South Africa. The spread of the cholera, along with the nation’s crashing economy and failed leader, will make for a speedy ousting of Mugabe in 2009.
COPE Brings Hope to South Africa Ahead of Elections and 2010 World Cup
South Africa will spend much of 2009 gearing up to host the World Cup in June and July 2010, during which half a million visitors will descend upon the country and pump billions into its economy, while putting an enormous strain on its infrastructure (Previous Report). Many observers have expressed concern that preparations and construction projects will not be completed on time, and transportation and safety are still major concerns. The country will invest heavily over the next year to continue expanding and upgrading accommodations, stadiums, transportation infrastructure, and security forces.
The process has been fraught thus far with delays due to funding shortages, domestic squabbles, and other obstacles. With so much at stake, finishing preparations and appeasing international observers will be a key focus in 2009.
•In June 2009, South Africa is hosting a smaller international tournament, the Confederations Cup, which is seen as a dress rehearsal for the World Cup. Although the Confederations Cup will draw a number of visitors, its impact will be miniscule in comparison to the World Cup in 2010.
The World Cup preparations could be disrupted in 2009 if the country’s political climate continues to flare. Since the end of apartheid in the early 1990s, the African National Congress (ANC) – the party of Nelson Mandela – has dominated South African politics and been the country’s ruling party. Since 2005, however, the party has been plagued by controversy and scandal stemming from several senior leaders who were accused of corruption and other crimes. In 2008, a number of disaffected ANC members including high-ranking ministers began to splinter off and form their own movement, citing the “moral decay” and rampant corruption beginning to pollute the ANC. The group formally launched a new party, the Congress of the People (COPE), in December 2008 with former ANC Minister, Mosiuoa Lekota as its president (Previous Report).
COPE has appealed to a wide base of South Africans and is no peripheral faction. The party has announced that it plans to challenge the ANC in the upcoming elections in early 2009 and represents the first real threat to ANC hegemony since it first took power in 1994.
•While COPE is unlikely to win the presidency in the upcoming election, it only needs to win 15 or 20 percent of the parliamentary vote to revolutionize South African politics and usher in a new era of competition. It appears that the party is capable of doing so.
This unprecedented competition has not been warmly received by the ANC and has resulted in rising tensions over the past few months. Multiple acts of politically motivated violence and intimidation have been reported, and riot police have been forced to intervene during several recent events to prevent violence from erupting between members of the two parties. These tensions have shown no signs of subsiding, and it seems highly likely that the hostilities could continue or even escalate over the next few months as the election in early 2009 draws near.