Political Situation
Over the past year, Afghanistan President Hamid Karzai, who was once praised by the West for his ability to unite the country’s ethnic groups, has now been turned into a symbol of all that has gone wrong in Afghanistan. President Karzai’s term is set to end next year, and the vote will most likely be held in the fall of 2009. Despite losing public and international support as a result of dire living conditions and an emboldened Taliban movement, Karzai is expected to seek reelection. In a free and fair election, the chances of Karzai winning the presidency are unlikely. However, because some areas are simply too dangerous to conduct free and fair elections, Karzai is likely to survive politically. In addition, in 2009 we are likely to see few serious challengers emerge that pose a threat to Karzai politically.
The political situation in Pakistan has stabilized since October 2007, where the political environment was immensely unstable and uncertain. Despite the range of problems Pakistan faces, there is likely to be a level of political stability in Pakistan’s executive branch, with President Asif Ali Zardari to occupy the presidency throughout 2009. We do not believe opposition leader Nawaz Sharif or other individuals will be able to gain enough public or political support to challenge Zardari in 2009. However, we do anticipate Sharif will position himself as the prime opposition candidate to Zardari’s administration, despite the fact they initially worked as coalition partners.
While maintaining some stability, Pakistan’s civilian government will remain relatively weak in 2009 compared to the country’s other organizations, including the military and controversial Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) agency. We believe Zardari will continue to pressure and reign in the ISI over its suspected links to Taliban militants, but we do not expect successful results in 2009. Any attempt by Zardari to limit the power of ISI or increase oversight will be met with hostility.
While we foresee Zardari stepping up pressure to further regulate and increase oversight activities on the ISI, the spy agency will maintain its status of “a state within a state” and continue to wield incredible influence in Pakistani politics.
After a set of surprise victories in both state and local elections held on December 8, 2008, India’s Congress Party will be focusing significant amounts of time and effort to prepare for national elections scheduled for April 2009. However, we believe it will be an uphill battle for Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s Congress Party to achieve victory in the 2009 elections, largely due to the handling of the current economic situation. While terrorism is on the minds of voters in India, we believe it will be local issues, such as infrastructure development and food subsidies, which will decide the election.
The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) will continue campaigning on a strong anti-terrorism agenda for the 2009. However, unless additional terrorist attacks are perpetuated or there is a shift and terrorism becomes the primary issue of concern among Indian voters, the BJP is unlikely to strengthen politically.
Terrorism and Insurgency
The insurgency waged by the Taliban and their al Qaeda allies reached a new peak in 2008, with attacks by militants becoming bolder and deadlier. We believe this trend will continue in 2009, as the Taliban has been able to regroup and organize along the Pakistan/Afghanistan border.
As the Iraq conflict winds down and violence subsides, several countries are expected to increase troop levels in Afghanistan. A further introduction of troops to the conflict will inevitably result in an increase in clashes with Taliban militants. With militants in firm control of parts of southern Afghanistan and the border regions, a troop increase by North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) forces is unlikely to provide peace and stability. However, areas in the north and major cities like Kabul may benefit in 2009 from the troop increase, as security is expected to improve in these areas.
Along with a troop increase in 2009, Taliban forces are likely to step up attacks against NATO soldiers, largely in an attempt to pressure their governments to withdraw. While most countries are unlikely to be impacted by such operations, we are particularly concerned with Canada and France, two countries whose populations remain wary of the Afghan mission and may begin pressuring their governments to withdraw if casualty figures rise.
Similar to Afghanistan, Pakistan has experienced a drastic increase in terrorist attacks originating from the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) and North-West Frontier Province (NWFP). The domestic security situation in Pakistan is likely to worsen in 2009. We are likely to see an increase in terrorist attacks targeting civilian infrastructure throughout the country’s major cities and against the Pakistani Army in the northwest, primarily perpetuated by the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) group.
However, we believe the security environment will worsen most in the city of Peshawar, where we believe a drastic increase in violence and terrorist acts will occur in 2009. Because the city is located close to Islamabad, it increases the chances of violence spreading to the capital city. Despite speculation, the likelihood of Pakistan collapsing or being overtaken by Taliban militants remains low, as such a scenario would provoke the Army to seek a larger role and stabilize the country.
Violence and instability is likely to result in Pakistan continuing military operations in FATA and NWFP in 2009. Bajaur Agency and Mohmand Agency are likely to be the two areas that experience the most fighting, while securing and stabilizing Peshawar in NWFP will also be a top priority (Previous Report).
The November 26, 2008 attacks in Mumbai provided clear evidence of the threat India faces from Islamic terrorism . Through 2009, India will face a significant threat of Islamic extremists, primarily from neighboring Bangladesh and Pakistan. In addition, India’s inability to modernize and integrate much of its Muslim population will result in the country experiencing a significant threat from homegrown terrorists in 2009.
While India will continue experiencing Maoist-perpetuated violence in the east, the country’s intelligence services are likely to shift focus to prevent Islamist violence originating from neighboring countries and Kashmir. Instability in Kashmir will continue throughout 2009, providing a prime motivator for several regional terrorist groups to continue waging war against India.
Due to increased pressure and a crackdown launched by Islamabad, Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT) is unlikely to perpetuate attacks deep into India until at least late 2009. This is because a LeT-sponsored attack would almost certainly result in a massive Pakistani crackdown against the organization and its charities, as well as possibly warranting an Indian bombardment of Pakistani-administered Kashmir. However, other groups like Harkat ul-Jihad-al-Islami (HUJI) are unlikely to be deterred in 2009 and will continue perpetuating attacks targeting civilian infrastructure, such as markets, tourist locations, and other crowded areas.
Given Islamic militants ability to use Pakistani territory and vast networks throughout India, the likelihood of large-scale terror strikes in India in 2009 is moderate to high.
Regional Relations
The Mumbai attacks have set the stage for relations between India and Pakistan for 2009. Pakistan’s latest crackdown targeting the LeT is unlikely to satisfy India, which will inevitably demand that Islamabad take further action. Pakistan’s unwillingness to fully address and reign in the LeT will be a major point of contention between the two countries in 2009.
If the next terrorist attack on India soil is proven to be linked to the LeT, we are likely to see a limited, Indian military incursion into Pakistani-administered Kashmir targeting the LeT. Tensions will remain high between India and Pakistan, which can be seen in Pakistan’s recent decision to redeploy troops from the border regions with Afghanistan to the India border. However, the likelihood of a full-scale conventional or nuclear war between the two countries’ remains low in 2009, nevertheless the threat of war is likely to exist throughout much of the year.
Overall, 2009 appears to be a dire year for India-Pakistan relations, fueled by fear, distrust, and suspicion. Counter-terrorism cooperation, nuclear talks, and political dialogue are likely to be hampered, ultimately contributing to the already volatile relationship between the two countries.
