Highlights
− Mideast symposium highlights modern defense against ballistic missiles and airborne threats
− UAE purchase of THAAD near completion
− Iranian threat impetus of air missile defense development
− Gulf military purchases are defensive in nature
At the Middle East Missile and Air Defense Symposium in Abu Dhabi on December 14 and 15, 2008, senior officials from the US, the United Arab Emirates and several Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) member states discussed the “strategies, technologies, methodologies and tactics related to modern defense against ballistic missiles and airborne threats.” At the symposium, experts promoted the necessity of national air defense systems in the Gulf, as well as the establishment of a unified air defense command center in the GCC, which would link the radars, command systems and missiles of member states. The establishment of sophisticated air missile defense systems in the Gulf is viewed as a defensive measure to counter Iran’s development of ballistic and short-range missiles (Previous Report), as well as its purchase of the Russian-made S-300 anti-aircraft missile defense system (Previous Report).
The topic in many back room discussions at the symposium, however, was the UAE’s impending purchase of Lockheed Martin’s Patriot Advanced Capability-3 (PAC-3) and Terminal High Altitude Area Defense system (THAAD). The UAE’s intention to purchase the air defense system was announced on September 9, 2008. The UAE’s request to purchase the THAAD was submitted in December 2007 and recently approved by the US Congress. The UAE’s proposed US$7 billion purchase will include anti-missile interceptors, launchers, fire control and communications systems, radar and training. The UAE is expected to receive its first shipment of the THAAD in the 2009 fiscal year but construction of the air defense system will not be complete for at least one year from the date of the first shipment.
Iranian Threat
Several Iran-linked drivers are behind the GCC’s enhanced interest in air missile defense, including: heightened tensions between Iran and the US and Israel, Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile programs, Iran’s purchase of Russia’s S-300 anti-aircraft missile defense system, Iranian threats to close the Strait of Hormuz and Iran’s construction of two administrative offices on two islands subject to a territorial dispute between Iran and the UAE. Though the primary targets of Iranian aggression will be US and Israeli targets, GCC member states recognize US businesses and investments on their territory could also be targeted. As such, and in order to build a universally stronger defensive capability, the GCC hopes to establish a unified air defense command center in the mid-term.
Of the Gulf nations, the UAE’s large financial sector and commercial infrastructure will likely be a primary target of an Iranian military response if Israel strikes Iranian nuclear facilities. Therefore, the UAE’s purchase of the THAAD is deemed a “sophisticated antidote” to Iranian missile capabilities. Once complete, the THAAD will provide the highest level of missile defense for the UAE.
Outlook: Defensive Capability
The UAE’s purchase of PAC-3 and the THAAD systems will provide the capacity to defend against both short and intermediate range ballistic missiles launched both inside and outside the Earth’s atmosphere. Once complete, the UAE will be the only state, outside the US, to employ this degree of advanced missile defense technology. As such, upon completion of the missile defense systems, the UAE will be capable of providing its citizens, residents and investors with the highest level of defense.
Other GCC member states, including Kuwait and Saudi Arabia, are also actively shopping for updated missile defense capabilities. However, there has been no official announcement as to which systems and capabilities are currently under their consideration. Regardless of their intent, the purchase of advanced missile systems requires months to formalize and even longer to construct. Therefore, in the near-term, the UAE and other GCC member states remain vulnerable to Iranian ballistic missiles.
Despite the purchase, an Iranian offensive strike on GCC targets is unlikely in the near-term. Iran relies heavily on trade with GCC states and would suffer extensively should GCC states, the UAE in particular, sever their economic ties and default on established trade agreements. The sole driver that could produce an Iranian strike on GCC targets would be a unilateral strike on Iranian nuclear facilities. However, even in the event that such a strike were to take place, Iran would likely seek to target US and Israeli targets exclusively.
