Highlights
– A number of high-profile arrests have crippled leadership of Jemaah Islamiyah
– The group’s connection with Al Qaeda appears to have been disrupted
– Jemaah Islamiyah remains a threat to region and to the West despite its setbacks
The Al Qaeda-linked terrorist organization, Jemaah Islamiyah (JI), has been dealt a number of serious blows to its operational capabilities, financing, and leadership in recent months. While the group continues to be a threat to much of Southeast Asia, and in particular to Western interests in the region, the execution of the Bali bombers, a number of high-profile arrests, and the disruption of the group’s link to Al Qaeda appear to have lessened JI’s ability to prosecute attacks in the near-term.
Despite these setbacks, however, the group continues to pose a threat to the region and to Western interests, particularly as Abu Bakar Bashir, the group’s self-proclaimed religious leader, was released from prison in 2006.
Recent Events Affecting JI
Indonesian security forces have made a number of inroads into JI that appear to have markedly reduced the strength of the group’s operational capabilities since the Bali bombings.
• August 5, 2006: Al-Qaeda’s Al Zawahiri appeared on a recorded video announcing that JI and Al-Qaeda had joined forces and that the two groups will form “one line, facing its enemies.” Despite this claim, Director Hayden of the Central Intelligence Agency has since stated that the group’s affiliation has been weakened.
• June 13, 2007: Abu Dujana, the head of JI’s military operations, was captured by Indonesian police and is currently serving a 15-year prison term for terrorism related offenses.
• June 15, 2007: Indonesian Police announced the capture of Zarkasih, who was leading Jemaah Islamiyah since the capture of Hambali. Zarkasih was believed to be the emir of JI.
• February 27, 2008: The leader of JI in Singapore, Mas Selamat Kastari, escaped from the Whitley Road Detention Centre. As of November 2008, his current whereabouts are unknown.
In addition to Mas Selamat Kastari, Noordin Mohammed Top, one of the suspected Bali masterminds, also remains at large. With these two individuals still at large, and Abu Bakr Bashir – the group’s religious leader – living in the Java province of Indonesia, the likelihood that JI is reconstituting its forces and refortifying its operational capabilities remains high.
Continuing Threats
Despite a number of high-profile arrests, and a statement by Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) Director Michael Hayden indicating that counterterrorism forces in Indonesia have succeeded in disrupting the ties between JI and al Qaeda, it is more than likely that the group is in the process of rebuilding, seeking alternative financing, and training. While many analysts view the failure to initiate an attack in response to the execution of the Bali bombers – Amrozi, Ali Ghufron and Imam Samudra – as a testament to the group’s declining capabilities, we believe the group continues to constitute a threat to the region, and to the West in particular.
Outlook
While we note that JI’s operational capability appears to have been curtailed of late thanks in part to the counterterrorism operations of Indonesia’s security forces, we believe it wrong to attribute a lull in activity to a neutralization of the threat. JI, like many terrorist organizations pursuing an Islamic state, views its efforts as a prolonged struggle against its own secular government, and that body’s affiliation with Western interests. As such, we believe it more likely that the group is reorganizing and rehabilitating itself to pursue what it perceives as a long-term struggle to achieve a wholly Islamic State in the region.
