Highlights
– Former prime ministers jailed for corruption released to campaign again
– Bangladesh labeled one of the most corrupt nations in the world
– Islam appears to be key to victory at ballot box
Having lifted restrictions on political parties, campaigning has begun for Bangladesh’s upcoming general elections. The main contestants are the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), headed by Khaleda Zia, and the Awami League, headed by Sheikh Hasina Wajed; both women are former prime ministers.
The interim government has indicated that it will fully lift the country’s state of emergency – begun on January 11, 2007 – on December 17, twelve days ahead of the elections scheduled for December 29. We note that the caretaker government currently leading Bangladesh was supposed to cede power two to three months after declaring emergency law but failed to do so, a sign of the group’s reluctance to lose power.
In the near-term, it appears that the military-controlled caretaker government, headed by Chief Adviser Fakhruddin Ahmed, will lift the state of emergency as planned and permit elections to go forward to elect the Jatiyo Sangshad (JS), the country’s parliament.
Bangladesh’s Main Political Rivals
The two major parties in Bangladesh are the left-of-center Awami League, headed by Sheikh Hasina – a favorite to win the vote – and the more pro-Islamic Nationalist Party, headed by Khaleda Zia.
Awami League
The Bangladesh Awami League is the mainstream secular political party in Bangladesh, and played a major role in the Bengali rebellion of 1971. Sheikh Hasina – daughter of the late Sheikh Mujibur Rahman – has headed the party since 1984. Since Bangladesh’s independence from West Pakistan on December 16, 1971, the Awami League has been in government for two terms, roughly eight and a half years. In the 2001 general election, the party received 40 percent of the vote and won 62 of 300 parliamentary seats, becoming the second-largest party in the parliament behind the BNP.
BNP
The BNP is Bangladesh’s more Islamic-focused political party. It was founded on September 1, 1978, by former President General Ziaur Rahman, and has ruled the country on four separate occasions since independence. The party’s current chair is Begum Khaleda Zia, General Zia’s widow. In Bangladesh’s 2001 elections, the BNP and its allies received 46 percent of the vote, constituting 215 of the 300 seats in Parliament.
Rivalry
Sheikh Hasina and Khaleda Zia are bitter rivals who have dominated Bangladeshi politics for the past fifteen years. Each woman is related to one of the leaders of the country’s independence movement – 1971 – and both were only recently released from prison after being sentenced on charges of corruption and graft. While the Awami League has attempted to appear more pro-Islamic in its campaigning – an effort to attract much of the country’s Muslim majority – the BNP has formed a loose coalition with the Jamaat-e Islami, the country’s largest Islamist party which offers large appeal to the country’s youth.
While the Awami League appeared to have an initial lead over the more disorganized BNP, the latter’s alliance with the Jamaat-e Islami is likely to play a large role in winning over many of the country’s Muslims, particularly in light of both candidates attempts to appear less secular following their imprisonment.
Outlook
While an end to emergency rule and elections do not equal democracy, both are necessary preconditions for the country’s stability. Fortunately, the army-backed caretaker government and the country’s main political parties have come to a consensus on a number of important issues surrounding civil rights, press freedoms, and campaigning. However, the army has begun showing signs of a desire to play a greater role in politics, and a free and fair election does not necessarily guarantee that the losing party will not contest the results.
As it currently stands, it appears the elections will go forward as scheduled but bickering by the losing party is likely immediately following the election results. Further, should the army feel that its role will be limited in the upcoming parliamentary session, there exists a strong probability that the country’s elections will be postponed yet again.
