Highlights
– Indian government claims perpetrators had “external linkages”
– Both countries have put their military forces on high alert along the border regions
– Pakistan’s long-term counterinsurgency strategy likely to be negatively impacted
The terrorist attacks on November 26, 2008 in Mumbai occurred as both India and Pakistan, two hostile nuclear-armed neighbors, were delicately moving toward improved relations with the encouragement and support of the United States (US).
However, the relationship is likely to deteriorate as India warned on December 1, 2008 that the Mumbai attacks dealt a “grave setback” to relations with Pakistan. The Indian government claimed that the Islamist gunmen who launched the devastating attack in Mumbai targeting at least 10 sites simultaneously were all from Pakistan, stressing that time is running out for Islamabad to fulfill its promise to prevent Pakistani soil from being used for attacks on India.
To date, Pakistan has denied having any involvement in the Mumbai attacks, while India appears convinced that Islamabad has some connection to the attacks. Ultimately, the current political climate will contribute to an overall deteriorating relationship between the two nations in the near to mid-term. The standoff will worsen to the point where we expect to see an increase in war rhetoric and further redeployment of troops along the border regions. Nevertheless, we do not anticipate a conventional war between India and Pakistan is likely to occur in the near-term.
Rising Tensions
The announcement by the Indian government blaming the Pakistani-based militant group Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) for the Mumbai attacks escalated tensions between the nuclear-armed neighbors. Some US counterterrorism officials stated some “signatures of the attack” were consistent with the LeT, heightening the belief that the organization played a role in the attack. However, Indian officials have remained cautious about directly accusing Pakistan’s government of complicity.
In a television address following the attacks, Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh claimed the attacks had “external linkages” and that there would be a “cost to our neighbors if their territory were found to have been used as a launching pad.” While Prime Minister Singh revealed few details, Indian and Pakistani media outlets are claiming the two nations are on the brink of war once again.
In the near-term, India will primarily focus on whether Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence agency (ISI) was directly involved in the attack. If there is a proven link, the warmer relationship that has been fostered between the two countries would plunge to new lows, drastically increasing the likelihood of limited, armed clashes along the border regions and greatly hampering regional counterterrorism efforts.
Redeployment of Troops
The accusations against Pakistan by the Indian government have prompted Islamabad to threaten to redeploy troops from the Afghanistan border currently battling pro-Taliban and al Qaeda militants to the border area facing India. Reports have stated that Pakistan has already begun redeploying troops along the India border.
The redeployment or potential movement of troops not only further escalates tensions with India, but also negatively impacts Pakistan’s war against Islamic militants operating in the North-West Frontier Province (NWFP) and Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA).
Regarding the redeployment, a Pakistani official was quoted as saying, “If something happens, the war on terror cannot be our priority. We will take everything from the western border. We won’t leave anything there.” Indian army sources claim forces near Pakistan have been placed on a raised alert, a move that was reciprocated by Pakistan by placing its air force and navy on high alert.
Outside of possible, low-level armed skirmishes along the Kashmir border region, we believe an outbreak of a full-scale, conventional or nuclear war between India and Pakistan remains low for the near to mid-term.
Outlook
The attacks in Mumbai represent a major setback in relations between India and Pakistan, which are unlikely to be repaired for the years to come. In the near-term, the two countries are expected to increase their forces along the border regions. A heavily fortified border with escalated tensions enhances the likelihood of armed clashes between the two countries, which would likely be confined to the Kashmir region. However, both countries are likely to take every effort and measure possible to avoid armed conflict.
We can expect the US to play an increasingly proactive role in diffusing the crisis, as any further increase in tensions will negatively impact Pakistan’s war against Islamic militants operating in the country’s northwest, a scenario the US hopes to avoid.
The attacks in Mumbai and a redeployment of forces along the India-Pakistan border would ultimately affect Islamabad’s war against Islamic militants operating in the northwest. With increased tensions, Pakistan may halt, postpone, or cancel altogether its current offensive in Bajaur and future campaigns in the area. However, this will largely depend on rhetoric coming from New Delhi and if Pakistan believes India is preparing for armed conflict, which thus far, does not appear to be the case.
The Indian government will be under pressure by its public to act, particularly against Pakistan if it is linked to the recent terrorist actions. However, besides increased war rhetoric and accusations, the standoff resorting to armed conflict is unlikely unless the Indian government can prove ISI had a role in the attacks. If ISI had a hand in the Mumbai attacks, India will have little other choice but to confront Pakistan, leading to armed clashes that could potentially lead to a larger military confrontation.
