Highlights:
– Islamic terrorist groups likely to maintain presence in Latin America for fundraising purposes in near to mid-term
– While Hezbollah retains the capacity to execute attacks worldwide, the threat of violent attacks in Latin America likely to remain low in near to mid-term
– US authorities remain concerned that Islamic terrorist groups will use Mexico as platform for attacks into the US
While media reporting within Latin America largely concentrates on domestic terrorist threats from groups such as the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) and National Liberation Army (ELN), ongoing concerns remain as to the presence and operation of Islamic terrorist groups within the region. Primarily through cultural and expatriate connections, groups such as Hezbollah maintain supporters in the region for fundraising purposes. Similar to international operations in regions such as Africa, recent investigations have determined that Hezbollah maintains fundraising practices through drug dealing, arms trafficking, contraband smuggling, and other illicit actions.
However, despite the ongoing activity by these groups’ operatives and regional supporters, there has not been any recent violence attributed to these groups within Latin America in over a decade. We anticipate Hezbollah specifically will maintain correspondence with supporters for financing operations in the near to mid-term, primarily in the lawless areas of the tri-border region of Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay; however it remains unlikely these groups will execute attacks within Latin America in the near-term.
Hezbollah Operations
Hezbollah’s strength within Latin America remains thanks in part to a large population of Lebanese expatriates who fled to Brazil during Lebanon’s civil war. While the group successfully attacked a Jewish center and the Israeli embassy in Argentina in the early 1990s, ongoing conduct within Brazil and the tri-border region remains focused on fundraising for operations in the Middle East.
• In late-October 2008, United States (US) and Colombia officials successfully disrupted an international cocaine smuggling operation that allegedly used a portion of the profits to finance Hezbollah. Over 35 suspects were arrested in the culmination of a two-year investigation, including kingpin Chekry Harb, a Lebanese citizen who laundered hundreds of millions of dollars a year. Authorities determined that Harb had visited Lebanon numerous times, maintained phone contact with Hezbollah figures, as well as paid up to 12 percent of its profits to the terrorist group.
US and Latin America officials also maintain a growing concern regarding Hezbollah’s operations within Venezuela.
• In June 2008, the US Treasury Department froze the assets of two Venezuelans of Lebanese decent, one a diplomat, for financing and supporting Hezbollah (Previous Report).
• Additional reports in recent months indicate that Hezbollah may be involved in alien smuggling operations from Latin America, particularly the tri-border region and Venezuela, to the United States.
Jewish organizations in the Western hemisphere have remained on a heightened alert since February 12, 2008, when a bomb blast in Damascus, Syria killed Imad Mughniyeh, one of Hezbollah’s top commanders. Following Mughniyeh’s death, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah blamed Israel and highlighted that Israel struck outside the “natural field of battle,” in other words outside of Lebanon’s borders. A potential attack abroad would follow Nasrallah’s guidelines as he stated, “Let it be an open war,” likely an indication Hezbollah seeks to attack Israeli or Jewish targets outside the Middle East.
Despite the increased alert, there is no evidence to suggest Latin America will be Hezbollah’s target of choice in the near to mid-term. The Israeli government has prevented Hezbollah operations in North Africa, Canada and Israel against Israeli targets in recent months, but has made no mention of an increased threat in Latin America.
However, the Israeli Defense Ministry, Ehud Barak, recently released a report indicating Hezbollah is three times more powerful and better armed than it was before the July 2006 war, confirming that the group likely maintains the capability to execute attacks outside of the Middle Eastern region. Currently, Hezbollah’s finances are largely concentrated on targeting Israel and maintaining domestic political support ahead of the 2009 Parliamentary elections in Lebanon. As such, we anticipate the likelihood of Hezbollah striking Latin American targets in the long-term to remain moderate. However, no evidence exists to indicate that additional resources – aside from capital already being generated in the region – are being diverted for upcoming attacks on Latin American targets.
Mexican Connection
Increasing violence by Mexican drug cartels has also raised concerns that Islamic terrorist groups such as Hezbollah will capitalize on the currently unstable security situation to take part in the lucrative drug trafficking industry for fundraising. Despite this concern, it does not appear likely that criminal and drug smuggling networks and Islamic terrorism will align, as doing so could result in a loss of Salafi-jihadi sympathizers in the Middle East. However, profit motives are a cause for future concern in aligning groups, despite doctrinal differences, and US and Mexican officials will likely continue to monitor for a radical Islamic presence in the near to mid-term.
Nevertheless, recent reports have indicated that terrorist and insurgent networks are considering Latin America, particularly Mexico, as a potential platform to gain entry into the US for possible attacks.
• In 2007, the US Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) issued an advisory warning stating that 60 Afghani and Iraqi extremists were planning to be smuggled through underground tunnels from Mexico to attack Fort Huachuca in Arizona.
• In 2007, the FBI uncovered a human smuggling operation based in Chaparral, New Mexico. Allegedly, the ring was smuggling people from countries in the Middle East, specifically Iraq, into the US.
• Hezbollah sympathizers and fundraisers have also been seized while trying to cross from the south.
While the southern United States border remains porous and thus prone to illegal entry by criminal and possibly terrorist organizations, we do not anticipate an immediate threat from Islamic terrorist organizations in this region. Islamic terrorist organizations, such as Hezbollah, will likely continue to limit efforts to operations for capital raising, concentrated in areas where the groups already maintain connections and cultural support such as the previously mentioned tri-border region. Physical attacks by Hezbollah will likely remain concentrated in the Middle East region in the near to mid-term, however if operations are executed in Latin America, it is highly likely that the group will focus its efforts on political or strategic targets that are linked to Israel.
