Highlights
• Upcoming anniversary of December 11, 2007 attacks may prompt additional AOIM actions
• Algerians usually celebrate this day in memory of the historical December 11, 1960 mass demonstration against then-French President Charles de Gaulle’s visit
• AOIM militants have increased capabilities and emboldened their attacks since last year; thus it is likely that AOIM will strike again as the December 11 anniversary nears
Until last year, the annual December 11, 1960 Algerian memorial celebrations of the mass demonstration, which took place that day in protest against then-French President Charles de Gaulle’s visit, were largely peaceful. However, after the double suicide car bomb attacks that killed at least 75 people last year, Algerians have been uneasy in celebrating the one-time festive memory of the event that led to the country’s independence .
Although the al-Qaeda Organization in the Islamic Maghreb (AOIM) has not alluded to any potential attack next week on any online jihadist forums, Algerian security forces and intelligence officials are on alert for possible anniversary enacted targeting. Such sentiment, however, is not only shared among the authorities, but many Algerians are also fearful of potential attacks in the coming days.
• December 11, 1960, was a turning point in the war for independence from Algeria’s former colonial ruler and AOIM’s present-day adversary, France. Pro-independence protests broke out in 1960 during a visit by France’s then-president, Gen. Charles de Gaulle. Algerians usually remember the anniversary of this date every year, by holding demonstrations recalling perceived brutality by French forces, who cracked down on young protestors more than 40 years ago.
AOIM has refrained from conducting any large-scale attacks in recent months, a pattern previously displayed by the group prior to launching prominent attacks. As the December 11, 1960 anniversary nears, we anticipate that AOIM will attempt to carryout a number of attacks reminiscent of those of last year. However, due to the increased security on December 11, 1960 Boulevard this year, it is likely that the group will execute attacks in other locations or on a different day.
Despite the uptick in security measures, AOIM has increased its capabilities since last year, which will likely result in an increase in the number of attacks staged this year.
Remembering December 11, 2007
Last year’s attacks surprised both the Algerian and international community, as the December 11, 1960 anniversary memorials had previously been non-violent. However, on December 11, 2007, AOIM carried out two successful car bomb attacks in Algiers. At approximately 9:30 am, two vehicles exploded in separate residential areas within ten minutes of each other, killing at least 75 people, and injuring almost 200.
The first explosion occurred in Ben Aknoun, a district of the capital, which houses the Supreme Court and Constitutional Council and a number of other court buildings and homes. The suicide bomber detonated his car near a school bus in the district carrying local law students. The second blast occurred in front of the headquarters of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) building in the neighboring residential district of Hydra, which houses various other United Nations (UN) agencies and is home to several Western companies, government buildings and embassies. At least 11 UN workers were among the dead, including five foreigners.
The government building struck on December 11, 2007, was on a street named for the earlier independence date, December 11, 1960 Boulevard (Previous Report). Due to increased capability and capacity during the last year, we believe the probability of another AOIM waged attack occurring at or near the anniversary of last year’s attack is moderate to high.
AOIM Emboldens Attacks This Year
As AOIM has demonstrated its ability to carryout back-to-back attacks this past year with increasing strength and impact, it is likely that the group will strive to maintain its reputation with continued attacks this year. The success of the August 19, 2008 suicide attack that killed 48 people and injured 45 others, in addition to the successful twin suicide attacks that occurred the following day and left twelve people dead, lead us to believe that the group is likely to attempt to stage similar attacks again this year.
Further, we expect AOIM to target government buildings and Western interests in an effort to commemorate the historical anti-French protests 48 years ago and to continue its campaign against foreign interests in the country.
