Highlights
– Opposition candidates hope to strengthen position against President Hugo Chavez with strong showing in November 23rd state and municipal elections
– President Chavez and allies blacklist, launch investigations to bar candidates from participation
– Opposition likely to capitalize on renewed strength after defeating President Chavez’s referendum in December 2007; expected to win approximately five to 10 governor positions
On November 23, 2008, Venezuela will hold municipal and state elections throughout the country, offering the opposition its first electoral chance to demonstrate power over President Hugo Chavez since his referendum was defeated in December 2007 (Previous Report). Currently, President Chavez and his allies in the Fifth Republic Movement ruling coalition control all but four of Venezuela’s 23 governor positions, as well as the majority of the 300 municipal leaders roles. However, with declining confidence in President Chavez and his party due to corruption allegations, recent domestic opinion polls indicate that opposition candidates may be able to secure between five and ten of the 22 governor positions available. While President Chavez’s overall popularity is likely to remain relatively high in the near-term, an increasing win by opposition candidates would place the parties on a more even political platform with the charismatic president, and ensure a more difficult contest if he pushes for another referendum vote.
Hindering the Opposition
President Chavez and his allies have taken numerous steps in recent months to deny the involvement of certain opposition candidates:
• In June 2008, the State National Election Council announced a list of approximately 300 candidates who would be barred from participating in the November elections for allegedly misusing public funds. Comptroller General Clodosbaldo Russian, an ally of President Chavez, drew up the list that included some of Venezuela’s most prominent leaders, including Caracas mayoral candidate Leopoldo Lopez. The Supreme Court subsequently cleared many of the candidates from the ban within a few weeks, as the time limit for the investigation of nearly 100 candidates had already expired. If determined to be guilty, the remaining candidates could be barred from holding public office in the future, and many were already forced to limit their campaigning pending investigation. Despite the recent Supreme Court decision, we do not expect many of the candidates to poll high given the short time-frame left before the election.
• In late-October 2008, Attorney General Luisa Ortega, another President Chavez ally, announced the possibility of charging Governor Manual Rosales with extortion and misusing public funds. Rosales is the two-time governor of the western state of Zulia, the country’s most populous state and oil hub, and is currently running for mayor of Maracaibo, Venezuela’s second largest city. Rosales is one of four opposition governors within Venezuela, making him a powerful counter-force to President Chavez. While any potential charges would be levied post-election, the allegations have likely made voters question Rosales’ ethics. However, given Rosales’ established political career within Zulia, he likely maintains a greater chance of overcoming President Chavez’s indirect attempts to hinder his election success.
• In mid-November 2008, Justice Minister Tarek El Aissami, a Chavez appointee, reported a police discovery of approximately 880 pounds of “what appeared to be cocaine” at a property owned by the brother of one of Valencia’s mayoral candidates. The candidate, Aldala Makled, does not belong to the traditional opposition parties of Democratic Action and COPEI, but represents the smaller “Yes There is Hope” party. Local media reports indicated he upset the Fifth Republic Movement candidates by using red t-shirts and posters similar to theirs during his campaign. Given that Makled is not as established as other opposition candidates with larger party backings, voters could be dissuaded from giving him the necessary support to win the mayoral seat.
Election Strategy
President Chavez has taken similar actions in the past before key elections, focusing his efforts on discrediting candidates he views as the greatest threat to his hold on power. In recent weeks, state-owned television has been broadcasting anti-Rosales attack ads. Rosales has fought back, stating that President Chavez only wants to “clamp down on the opposition as he weighs another drive to change the constitution to let him stay in office as long as he keeps winning elections”. President Chavez will likely use this upcoming election as a litmus test to gauge the amount of opposition he would face during another attempt to pass his constitutional reform referendum. If President Chavez’s Fifth Republic Movement coalition maintains an overwhelming majority, he will likely push again for constitutional reform to allow for longer term-lengths in the mid-term.
Outlook
While the race remains close in many of the contested positions, opinion polls in recent days indicate that the opposition should be able to gain upwards of five governor seats. Thanks to oil-funded social programs ongoing throughout the country, President Chavez will likely continue to enjoy relatively large support from the general public, however as oil prices continue to fall worldwide and corruption allegations within his administration increase, his popularity may fall slightly in the mid-term. Any opposition wins will likely not be large enough to serve as an equal counter weight to President Chavez in the near-term; however, the increasing unity among opposition parties following last December’s referendum defeat will likely prevent President Chavez from amending the Constitution in the near-term.
