Highlights
– Duma overwhelmingly passes legislation extending presidential term limits
– Speculation increasing that Vladimir Putin plans to return to Russian presidency
– As financial crisis worsens, Putin likely to take steps to strengthen his position of power in the near to mid-term
On November 14, 2008, Russian State Duma deputies approved legislation that would extend presidential term limits from the current four years to six years. The legislation also called for the terms of Duma deputies to be extended from four to five years.
The total vote was 388-58 and came after President Dmitry Medvedev abruptly announced the changes in a state-of-the-union address held on November 5, 2008. The 58 votes against the bill were primarily cast by the Communist Party, which currently holds 57 seats in the 450-seat Duma. Outside of the Duma, opposition leaders Garry Kasparov and Boris Nemstov joined roughly 100 activists waving banners reading, “Hands Off The Constitution.”
The legislation has sparked speculation that Prime Minister Vladimir Putin wants to return to the Kremlin for two six-year terms and that President Medvedev is preparing to step down early to ensure such a scenario. Kremlin officials have denied that the term extensions will pave the way for Putin’s return to the presidency, which could occur as early as 2009. Despite claims to the contrary, we believe it is likely that Prime Minister Putin will take advantage of Russia’s growing economic instability and turmoil to attempt to return to power in the near to mid-term.
Putin’s Return
The speculation that Vladimir Putin is planning to return to the presidential post following the resignation of President Medvedev was first suggested by the Russian business daily Vedomosti. The newspaper reportedly quoted an unidentified Kremlin official as saying that Medvedev may step down as early as next year to allow Putin to re-take the presidency of Russia.
According to Vedomosti, “Under this scenario, Medvedev could resign early, citing changes to the constitution, and then presidential elections could take place in 2009.”
The Kremlin has sent mixed signals regarding the issue, but recently stated that the proposed changes to the constitution would apply to Medvedev’s successor, indicating that the President plans to finish his first term and is likely to run for a second. However, critics claim the constitutional changes could be used as a legal pretext to call an early election and enable Putin to make a comeback. Russia’s constitution bars presidents from serving more than two consecutive terms, but there is no restriction on returning to the post after an interval.
Upon standing down as President in May 2008, Putin immediately became Russia’s most powerful Prime Minister, raising questions on whether Putin or Medvedev would be in control. Seven months into Medvedev’s presidency, it has become apparent that Putin continues to wield significant influence and likely continues to dictate Russian policy, raising speculation that he plans to return to the executive post.
However, it is the timing of the announcement to extend term limits and its abruptness that has raised speculation of Putin’s return. Only six months after stepping down as President, Putin and his supporters seem to recognize the political and economic dangers of falling oil prices – as Russia’s economic growth for the last several years is due largely to the oil boom. We note that Putin maintained consistently high approval ratings since taking office, and continues to be viewed favorably by the majority of Russian citizens.
Additionally, as the global financial crisis continues to have a negative impact on Russian markets, we expect some internal divisions within the political establishment, likely fragmenting some of Putin’s support base. We expect Putin recognizes that such fractions may occur and, as such, will likely attempt to reassert control before his support wanes or a rival group forms, providing an alternative to his powerful Kremlin faction “Siloviki.”
Future Outlook
While Russian newspapers are furthering much of the speculation, there exists uncertainty within the Russian public, business community, and international arena over the present political situation in Moscow. Most Western leaders had hopes that Putin’s influence would begin to wane as Medvedev’s power grew. However, to the chagrin of many Western leaders, Putin still appears to wield a considerable amount of power and influence.
Should Medvedev step down, we expect he will argue that Russia needs the experience of his predecessor during such a financial crisis. During his eight years in power, Putin greatly improved the Russian economy, while at the same time turning the country from a weak, quasi-democracy to a more authoritarian, assertive petro-state.
With Russia being severely impacted by the global financial crisis and its own internal economic instability, Putin’s potential return to the presidential post is looking increasingly likely. Presently, Putin’s loyalists control the Central Election Commission, major television stations, main political parties, Duma, Federation Council, military, police, and the secret services. However, as the financial crisis continues to take its toll on the Russia economy, Putin and his allies are likely to lose support from most sectors of the population, ultimately threatening his hold on power.
The changing of the constitution and a potential resignation from Medvedev would allow Putin to tighten his grip on power and hold the position for at least another six to twelve years, a prospect the West largely fears. While those in the international community are continuing to debate whether Putin will return to the presidency, it must be noted that he has in the past gone to great lengths to gain and consolidate power, especially in times of economic crisis. We assess for the mid to long-term that Vladimir Putin will remain a major player in Russian politics, whether by retaining his Prime Minister post or re-taking the presidency for the third time, with the latter looking increasingly likely.
