Highlights
– Interest in nuclear power growing significantly in Asia to offset increase electricity demand
– Over 100 nuclear power reactors already in existence, with plans to build additional 150
– Rush to train nuclear scientists could pose problems for implementing safeguards in the long-term
On November 10, 2008, the United Kingdom (UK) announced that it intended to lift the ban on exporting sensitive nuclear technology to India, just weeks after the United States convinced the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) to agree to waive its rule proscribing the sale of nuclear material to the country. The UK’s announcement comes just days after Russia’s announcement that it intends to take part in Vietnam’s planned nuclear energy program.
India and Vietnam are not the only countries taking a more active interest in pursuing nuclear power, however. Much of Southeast Asia is actively pursuing civilian nuclear energy programs to address growing energy needs. As fuel prices have steadily increased in recent years and the limited supplies of oil and natural gas throughout Southeast Asia have diminished, countries throughout the region are again taking an active interest in nuclear power.
Despite the increased interest in nuclear energy programs throughout the region, we anticipate that the sizable costs, coupled with the accelerated time frame for the completion of many nuclear reactors, will prevent regional nuclear development from occurring according to the initial expectations of many Southeast Asian governments.
Current and Future Reactors Throughout the Region
In East and South Asia alone, there are over 111 nuclear power reactors in operation, 21 under construction and plans to build a further 150 in the mid to long-term. The greatest numbers of nuclear power generation facilities are located in Japan, with 55 current reactors, two that are under construction, and an additional 17 planned.
In addition, the following countries currently have and are in the process of producing additional nuclear reactors: China, South Korea, North Korea, India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Indonesia, Thailand, Vietnam, Malaysia and Philippines. Each country has shown varying degrees of interest and progress in their respective pursuit of nuclear energy.
Japan
• Japan already generates over 28 percent of its electricity from nuclear energy. While the country possesses some of the most stringent safeguards, a number of reactors were shut down over several months following inspection irregularities. Further, an earthquake on July 16, 2007 at the Kashiwazaki-Kariwa plant resulted in leakage despite being designed to withstand a 6.5 earthquake on the Richter scale.
China
• With Chinese electricity demand growing at over eight percent per year, Beijing is moving rapidly to finish the seven plants it currently has underway. The country has a further 24 planned and 76 proposed, on top of 13 research reactors. Unlike many other countries in the region, China appears to be both on time and on budget in its developments.
South Korea
• With over 35 percent of its power generation already coming from nuclear plants, South Korea intends to meet 60 percent of its energy needs through nuclear power by 2035.
North Korea
• Currently, it appears North Korea has only two partially constructed nuclear power plants, in addition to one nuclear research reactor. Six party talks and nuclear negotiations with the United States have, for the time being, kept North Korea from pursuing a more robust nuclear program.
India
• Despite 17 reactors in operation, nuclear power currently supplies less than four percent of electricity in India. But with the waiver granted by the NSG, India’s nuclear energy program is poised to pursue a sizable increase in electricity generated from nuclear power in the near-term.
Pakistan
• With just two reactors in operation, Pakistan generates a mere three percent of its electricity from nuclear power. Given the tenuous security and economic situation that Pakistan is currently in, we do not expect the country to pursue any further nuclear development in the near to mid-term.
Bangladesh
• Bangladesh currently has one operating nuclear research reactor and intends to pursue a new plant with the help of China by 2015.
Indonesia
• Despite sitting on the largest known oil and natural gas reserves in the region, Indonesia’s growing demand for electricity has led the government to earmark US$8 billion for the development of four nuclear power plants scheduled to be operational by 2025. In 2003, Indonesia signed a ten-year cooperation agreement with Russia.
Thailand
• With 70 percent of the country’s electricity coming from natural gas, Thailand does not appear to be positioned to pursue nuclear power. However, with recent forecasts suggesting electricity demand for the country to grow by seven percent for the next twenty years, the Thai government has budgeted to begin a new plant by 2015.
Vietnam
• With just one nuclear research reactor operational, the Vietnamese government has indicated that it intends to build a 2000 and a 4000 MWe plant by 2020.
Malaysia
• Possessing just one nuclear research reactor, the Malaysian Nuclear Licensing Board said that plans for nuclear power should be developed prior to 2020.
Philippines
• The Philippines has one research reactor and possesses one power reactor that was suspended after allegations of bribery and safety deficiencies arose surrounding the site. The country appears currently to lack the trained nuclear scientists necessary to further develop the country’s nuclear program.
As exhibited by the ongoing development exhibited by the above countries, East and Southeast Asia currently are the only regions of the globe where nuclear power generation is growing significantly. As such, we expect a greater Western investment in these programs. In the near-term, we expect a number of smaller countries in the region will hasten to train nuclear scientists in Russia and China. In so doing, we expect some nuclear research programs will begin prematurely and could lead to a failure to adhere to appropriate nuclear safeguards.
Outlook
With nuclear energy development appearing to be the cheapest source of renewable energy compared to oil plants and solar power, it is unsurprising that so many Asian countries are actively pursuing their own nuclear energy programs. Of greatest concern, however, is that the programs are monitored and advised by a regulatory body equipped to guide these nations in their pursuit of nuclear energy – namely the International Atomic Energy Association (IAEA).
Should the countries attempt to pursue nuclear research reactor development without adequately trained nuclear scientists and without proper protocols and safeguards in place, the region could be poised to face a number of serious health and environmental catastrophes in the mid to long-term.
In addition to personnel training, nuclear waste treatment, environmental protection and radiation safety are serious issues that need to be adequately addressed prior to widespread development. With so many nations apparently rushing to develop their own sources of nuclear energy to address the growing fluctuations in global fuel costs, we fear that such undertakings will be developed with greater concern on cost than on safety. On a positive note, third and fourth generation nuclear reactors are proving to be safer and more reliable than earlier generations. As Western companies play a greater role in providing equipment and services in the development of these programs, we anticipate that some of the more glaring issues that could develop will be addressed.