Highlights
– 82 people killed and over 300 injured in coordinated bomb blasts
– Hindu-Muslim violence on the rise and likely to continue in the near-term
– Upcoming parliamentary elections likely to exacerbate current situation
On October 30, 2008, 82 people were killed and more than 320 were injured when eleven bombs detonated near simultaneously throughout the Indian state of Assam. Separatist movements have riddled India’s remote northeast for decades, but the level of sophistication and precision of Thursday’s bombings echo similar blasts across India over the past year which have been blamed on Islamist groups.
Assam is one of seven states in the remote northeast racked by insurgency, connected to India by a thin strip of land and surrounded by Bangladesh, China, Burma and Bhutan. Over the years, Muslim settlers, mostly from Bangladesh, have moved to this Hindu and tribal-dominated region, leading to increased ethnic tensions that were likely the catalyst for the recent violence.
Religious tension throughout the country appears to be on the rise and, as a result, we expect further attacks targeting disparate groups to occur in the near to mid-term.
Responsibility for Blasts
For the time being, it appears that more than one group may be responsible for the attacks. Initial reports indicated that the separatist United Liberation Front of Assam (ULFA) was responsible for the blasts, but more recent reports seem to indicate that Bangladesh-based Harkat-ul-Jihad al Islami (HuJI) may have been the lead group responsible.
Further, according to police, responsibility may lie with the Indian Mujahideen, a newly formed Islamic security force that may be an umbrella organization for former terrorist groups targeted by the Indian security apparatus. According to reports, the group sent a text message to a local television station claiming responsibility for the attacks – police further expect that the bombings were retaliation for previous attacks on Muslim settlers by indigenous tribes that killed at least 47 people during September and October 2008.
According to a recent report produced by a major political risk consultancy group, India, along with Malaysia and Thailand, faces the highest political and social risk among Asia-Pacific countries in 2009. Further, it appears that India is not so much vulnerable to negative fallout from the global financial crisis as it is to factors that are mainly internal.
Whether the attacks stemmed from deep-seeded religious hostility, or from the perceived mistreatment of illegal immigrants in the region, we expect retribution attacks to increasingly disrupt daily life throughout the country in the near-term.
Outlook
A series of recent bombings in cities across India, including Delhi, Mumbai, Bangalore, Hyderabad, Ahmedabad and Varanasi have killed and maimed thousands. As such, it appears that India is in the midst of a new phase of terror attacks wherein soft targets are being repeatedly chosen to produce a greater number of causalities and a more visceral reaction to the killing.
Contrary to the usual assertions by Indian security agencies – that Muslim terrorist groups are behind most attacks – it appears that some recent bomb blasts in India are likely the work of anti-Muslim groups bent on revenge.
Wherever responsibility for the recent wave of violence lies, we expect the country to grow more polarized in the coming months – with bombings becoming the norm – particularly as political parties begin to exploit the situation prior to upcoming provincial elections. We further expect the situation to worsen before getting better with crackdowns on suspected militants being met by an increase in soft target attacks across the country.