Highlights
− US confirmed raid in Sukkariyah, Syria
− Syria complicit with al-Qaeda transit and smuggling operations into Iraq
− US military likely to pursue increasingly aggressive measures to secure Iraq’s borders
On October 26, 2008, the US military staged a raid in the Syria border town of Sukkariyah, which is approximately five miles inside the Syrian border. Syrian newspapers reported that four US helicopters targeted a building under construction in Sukkariyah, killing eight. Discrepancies immediately emerged between Syrian government and Sukkariyah reports, with Syria claiming eight dead, including a man and his four children, and local newspapers reporting seven killed and two wounded. Additionally, an Associated Press reporter who attended the funeral said seven bodies were buried, none of which were minors.
The October 27 strike, confirmed by US officials, targeted al-Qaeda smuggling and transit networks along the Syria-Iraq border, as well as al-Qaeda’s coordinator in Syria, Badran Turki Hishan al Mazidih (also known as Ghadiya).
The raid is the first in Syrian territory since US forces entered Iraq in March 2003. We anticipate that the US military will likely conduct additional operations in Syria in the coming months.
Syria Complicit
Syrian dignitaries indicated to US officials in July 2008 a shift in its policy toward securing Syria’s border with Iraq “to the best of (their) abilities.” However, according to US Major General John Kelly, Syria continues to allow al-Qaeda operatives to operate openly in Syrian territory. As a result, Major General Kelly said the US military and Iraqi border police are “redoubling” their efforts to stand up Iraqi border patrols.
Syria is a known refuge for al-Qaeda operatives and Ba’thists who fled Iraq following the 2003 US-led invasion. Though the number of al-Qaeda operatives crossing the Syrian border into Iraq fell from an estimated 100 to 150 fighters a month in 2006 to 20 fighters a month in September 2008, the US military considers the “Syrian nexus” the greatest threat to Iraqi stability in a post-US Iraq.
Many Iraqi security and intelligence officials believe the Syrian government refuses to clamp down on al-Qaeda operatives in Syria out of fear the insurgents will turn their attention to Syrian targets. The government, therefore, allows al-Qaeda to operate freely in its territory as long as its operations are carried out in Iraq.
If true, there are two possible operational environments:
• the Syrian government was informed of the US raid but allowed to deny its foreknowledge or,
• the US raid was a warning to the Syrian government of future strikes in its territory if it does not increase its efforts to secure its border with Iraq.
In either case, the US-led strike into Syria could threaten ongoing US-Iraq Status of Forces negotiations.
Future Outlook: US-Iraq SOFA
The cross border strike will not seriously impact the current warming of US-Syrian relations. The raid could, however, potentially threaten US-Iraq Status of Forces negotiations. As of October 27, 2008, there was no clear indication to what degree the opposition planned to use the raid to its advantage. Iraqi Foreign Ministry undersecretary Labid Abbawi called the strike “regrettable” and said Iraq is “sorry it happened.” Some Iraqi ministers of parliament said the US raid would fuel opposition to the US-Iraq Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA), but Abbawi doubted the raid would greatly impact the negotiations (Previous Report).
The US military’s willingness to risk Syrian relations and the SOFA in Iraq is linked to both the high priority of the target—the al-Qaeda coordinator in Syria—and the increased likelihood that SOFA negotiations will fail.
If the US military does believe it is operating on a shortened timetable in Iraq, it will potentially undertake increasingly aggressive measures to ensure Iraqi security forces are capable of preventing an al-Qaeda resurgence in a post-US Iraq, even if it means cross-border strikes.
