Highlights
– President Felipe Calderon’s focus on the Gulf Cartel in December 2006 resulted in a restructuring of Mexican organized crime
– The Gulf Cartel’s Los Zetas hitmen group has been linked to recent mass-executions in Tijuana in September and October 2008
– Los Zetas have likely splintered from the Gulf Cartel and formed alliances with the Beltran-Leyva brothers and Vicente Carrillo Fuentes, bolstering their power in the near to mid-term
Despite intense targeting by the Mexican military, international attention, and continuing threats from powerful rival organizations, the Gulf Cartel has been able to maintain its territorial control from the strategic point of the city of Nuevo Laredo to the Gulf of Mexico, and has largely avoided the extreme “booms and busts” displayed by the majority of Mexican trafficking cartels.
It is likely that the Gulf cartel’s current decentralized structure, established from its evolution over time, will continue to shield the organization from complete dismantling in the near to mid-term.
Background
Juan Nepomucen Guerra founded the Gulf Cartel in the 1930s, distributing bootlegged whiskey in the United States (US) through the southern border of Texas. Guerra continued operating small-scale smuggling of contraband through the 1970s, until his nephew Juan Garcia Abrego took over and expanded the business into a major trafficker of Mexican marijuana and Colombian cocaine in the 1980s and 1990s.
In 1995, Abrego was the first drug trafficker to be listed on the US Federal Bureau of Investigation’s (FBI) Top Ten Most Wanted List. He was eventually arrested in 1996, and is currently serving 11 life sentences in the US. An interim leader named Salvador Gomez assumed control for a short time until now infamous Gulf leader Osiel Cardenas murdered Gomez in 1999. Cardenas became the undisputed leader of the Gulf Cartel and was able to reinstate its dominance in northeast Mexico and fend off its major rivals of the Sinaloa and Juarez Cartels.
Cardenas was arrested and incarcerated in 2003, where he managed the group while in prison through the enlistment of a group of ex-paramilitary hit men known as “Los Zetas.” Los Zetas were hired to defend Gulf Cartel territory from rivals, such as Joaquin “El Chapo” Guzman of the Sinaloa Cartel, who had long been a challenger for control of the strategic city Nuevo Laredo.
Current Situation
In December 2006, President Calderon targeted the Gulf Cartel as the singular catalyst and initial focus of his anti-drug trafficking campaign. Mexican media reported that by October 2008, Calderon’s campaign had netted 81 of the Gulf Cartel’s 157 high-level operators.
• On September 17, 2008 the United States (US) Justice Department stated that a 15-month, multi-agency operation called “Project Reckoning” was responsible for the seizure of US$60 million and 40 tons of illegal drugs, as well as the indictment of 175 members of the Gulf Cartel, including its suspected three leaders: Jorge Eduardo “El Coss” Costilla Sanchez, a top Lieutenant of Osiel Cárdenas’ who maintained close ties with Colombian cocaine suppliers; Heriberte “Lazca” Lazcano, reported leader of Los Zetas; and Ezequuiel Cardenas-Guillen, who acted as the head “gatekeeper” for the majority of Gulf territory.
Los Zetas
The Zetas, who have maintained operational control of the Gulf Cartel since 2003, peacefully “splintered” from their original Gulf leadership in 2007, dividing up areas of control in the city of Tamaulipas. The splinter group is a three-tiered, highly sophisticated organization that includes members from corrupt federal, state, and local law enforcement officers, as well as civilians. In mid-2007 leader Lazcano reportedly formed a new alliance with the once rival Beltran-Leyva Brothers and Vicente Carrillo of the Juarez cartel. The Zetas have been employed by members of this new alliance fairly recently in both the Sinaloa and Tijuana territories.
• On September 29, 2008 Zetas were reportedly responsible for the mass execution of 16 people in Tijuana. The following morning, additional human remains were found in a barrel of acid accompanied by a threatening message to rivals.
• On September 16, 2008 the Zetas were allegedly responsible for the Mexican Independence Day grenade attack in Morelia City, Michoacan, where eight civilians were killed and over 50 were injured (Previous Report).
Outlook
While President Calderon’s initial focus on the Gulf Cartel catalyzed a restructuring of Mexican organized crime, it is likely that the Gulf Cartel will continue to operate in northeast Mexico in the near-term despite the dense military presence in its territories.
Although the arrest of three Gulf leaders is a victory for law enforcement, it is unlikely that it will disassemble the organization, as its decentralized structure allows there to be numerous mid-level “gatekeepers” controlling small portions of the region which, with little resistance, are able to move into higher levels of power.
Furthermore, as the Zetas are succeeding in extending their rule into Sinaloa, Juarez and Tijuana, it is likely that the group will return to Tamaulipas in the mid to long-term, in order to claim the entirety of the Gulf territory. This will likely cause a shift in violence back to the US-Texas border in the mid-term.
