Highlights
-Venezuela president announces goal to develop civilian nuclear program
-Russia and France promise assistance with different motivations
-Nuclear development to remain long-term goal for Venezuela, however will likely generate US attention in near to mid-term
Following a recent state visit to Russia, Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez announced his ambition to develop a domestic nuclear program. In line with strengthening bilateral relations between the two countries, Russia Prime Minister Vladimir Putin pledged assistance for Venezuela’s program; additionally, a few days later, France also announced it would support President Chavez’s nuclear goals. While Russia hopes to secure Venezuela as its strategic ally within Latin America, France likely hopes Venezuela will serve as an intermediary in nuclear discussions with Iran.
President Chavez will likely attempt to gather as much international support, both rhetorically, as well as in funding assistance, in the near-term. However, the large amount of development necessary to re-instate the country’s long-abandoned nuclear capabilities will keep nuclear power a long-term goal for Venezuela.
Chavez’s Ambition
On September 29, 2008, President Chavez stated that Venezuela would begin to look to develop a nuclear reactor for peaceful purposes, including medical developments and electricity generation. President Chavez also noted that regional neighbors Brazil and Argentina both possess nuclear capabilities, and that Venezuela should be afforded the same right. The country had originally developed a nuclear reactor decades ago, but abandoned it when faced with increasing pressure from the United States (US).
While Venezuela remains a top oil producer and exporter, President Chavez is likely looking to secure future energy supplies by diversifying the government’s investment in alternative energy sources and nuclear power. Venezuela’s Foreign Minister Nicolas Maduro recently stated, “humanity’s future depends, in part, on going nuclear,” highlighting the growing importance of nuclear development for President Chavez’s administration.
Russian Aid
On September 26, 2008, during discussions with President Chavez, Prime Minister Putin pledged to continue the “development of our ties in all spheres” and to explore “new possibilities in energy, high-tech, machine construction and chemicals.” As previously reported, Russia and Venezuela have strengthened their bilateral relations in recent months through arms sales and purchases, as well as pledges of reciprocal energy development assistance (Previous Report). Since 2005, Venezuela has signed 12 arms contracts worth a total of US$4.4 billion, and Russia plans to launch its “first oil bore in the Gulf of Venezuela” in late October 2008.
Russia will likely use any assistance with Venezuela’s nuclear program as another avenue to secure the country as a strategic ally in the region, while Venezuela will benefit from updated technology and weaponry. Deepening economic, military and political relations between the two nations will likely continue in the mid to long-term.
French Motivation
While Russia’s promise of nuclear assistance was somewhat expected given its strengthening relations with Venezuela, France’s declaration on October 2, 2008 that it would support Venezuela’s nuclear program came as more of a surprise to the international community. During two days of high-level talks between foreign ministers, France’s Minster Bernard Koucher stated that his country would be willing to help Venezuela develop a program with “exclusively peaceful goals,” and that France was “ready to work with our Venezuelan friends.”
In exchange for assistance, however, France had hoped Venezuela would serve as an intermediary in discussions with Iran regarding its nuclear program. France, along with the US, has been a leader in the global push for greater oversight into Iran’s development, and likely hoped Venezuela could utilize its bilateral relationship with Iran to influence the government. While Venezuela was open to the idea, France reported that Iranian officials “have not responded” positively to the idea of discussion. Despite this current outcome France will likely continue to push for Venezuelan assistance in addressing nuclear concerns with Iran.
Outlook
Venezuela and the US have maintained an increasingly strained relationship under President Chavez, and the nuclear plans, though promised to be for civilian use only, will cause concern for the US in the near-term. The US will likely attempt to dissuade France, a NATO-ally, from large-scale assistance to Venezuela; however, France has increasingly shied away from following US foreign policy guidelines in recent years, most noticeably in the rejection of the invasion into Iraq in 2003.
As the US’ relationship with Russia has been strained regarding Russia’s recent incursion into Georgia, the US will likely not be able to exert much influence with Russia and will focus its attention on France’s connection.
Regardless of pledges for support, Venezuela has yet to release a timetable for the construction or completion of a reactor, leaving development of nuclear power to remain a long-term goal.
