Highlights
-Yearly extension mandate for cross border attacks likely to hurt EU accession
-Cyprus dispute and alleged political scandal complicate Turkey’s EU bid
-EU membership not likely for several years if slow pace of policy reform continues
On October 3, 2008, an estimated 350 rebels of the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) ambushed a military post near Semdinli, in the southeastern part of Turkey. While there are frequent clashes between the two sides, the surprise attack was the most intense fighting the region has seen in a year, with 15 Turkish soldiers dead, 20 suffering wounds, and another two captured. In retaliation, Turkish warplanes have carried out three air strikes on a suspected PKK hideout in northern Iraq. Following the initial attack, the Turkish military announced it would move five military stations, including the target of the October 3 assault, from their current mountainous locations.
Amid increasing domestic pressure to eradicate the outlawed organization, Turkey’s Parliament is scheduled to vote on October 8, 2008 on whether to extend the military’s authority to carry out operations in northern Iraq. With the current mandate expiring on October 17, Parliament will likely pass the government’s request to extend the military operations.
However, passing the mandate is a counterproductive policy for Turkey as it continues to pledge for a political transformation on its road to European Union (EU) accession. In addition to the military mandate, Turkey’s ongoing disputes over democratic standards and the divided island of Cyprus continue to present problems for the predominantly Muslim nation’s EU bid.
Obstacles Hindering Progress
Since Turkey opened accession talks with the EU in 2003, progress has remained at a slow pace. Out of 35 negotiating chapters, talks have only been opened on eight overall chapters. President Abdullah Gul recently urged the government to focus on political reforms and stated that a “successful conclusion of accession talks depends on our country’s putting all of its energy behind this process and carrying out many reforms in a short period of time.” Once parliament returns next week, the government will release the Third National Program, a plan that will call for reforms in 100 laws to align the laws with EU standards.
•The package is likely to face challenges as only 60 percent of the reforms introduced in the 2003 Second National Program were implemented (Source).
In a separate development, the reunification talks launched between Greek and Turkish Cypriots in early September 2008 are scheduled for a fourth round on October 10, 2008. Although the talks began with much optimism, the two sides have shown little signs of progress over resolving disputes on topics such as power sharing, governance, property, and territory. The success of the talks will have a significant impact on Turkey’s EU bid in two ways.
•Firstly, failed negotiations will not likely please the EU as it demands that Turkey open its ports and airports to traffic from Greek Cyprus.
•Secondly, although Cyprus is a member in the EU, its Greek Cypriots represent the country in the union and could impede Turkey’s bid.
An additional concern for Turkey came in the form of an alleged political scandal. In September 2008, the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) was accused of being connected to a scandal involving a Turkish charity in Germany, yet no evidence has surfaced supporting the claim. The AKP accused a Turkish independent media giant of biased media coverage regarding the case, prompting the EU to closely monitor the crisis to ensure that press freedom was maintained. Perhaps because of this latest incident, the EU has recently announced it will open a new chapter on “Information Society and Media” in entry talks with Turkey by the end of 2008.
Long Road Ahead to the EU
Despite Turkey’s ongoing challenges with the rigid disputes in Cyprus, recent allegations of political corruption, and its likely continued campaign against the PKK in Iraq, the AKP’s pledge for economic and democratic reforms will likely please the EU. Further, European officials praised Gul’s unprecedented visit to neighboring Armenia in September 2008. The visit is viewed as the first step for normalizing relations between the two states, which could also lead to a solution to a dispute that has destabilized the region regarding Nagorno-Karabakh, an Azerbaijani territory occupied by Armenia. Additionally, the successful amendment of the controversial Article 301 of the country’s penal code, under which “insulting Turkishness” was illegal, has also encouraged EU monitors.
Nevertheless, the EU will measure Turkey’s actual reforms over its verbal pledges, as it is set to release its annual report outlining its views on reforms undertaken by Ankara officials.
With the current pace of reforms and the country’s questionable reputation for democracy, we anticipate that Turkey’s membership into the EU will still take several years.