Highlights
-Myanmar military officials travel to North Korea after lifting diplomatic freeze
-Russia agrees to build 10-megawatt nuclear reactor in Myanmar
-Likelihood that Myanmar is equipped to pursue a nuclear weapons program is low
A recent flurry of high-level contacts between North Korea and Burma, also known as Myanmar have renewed concerns that the military junta in Yangon may be pursuing some sort of nuclear program.
In May 2007, Myanmar reinitiated formal diplomatic relations with Pyongyang after a twenty-four year freeze. Since that time, elite members of the military junta’s regime have traveled to North Korea on three separate occasions. According to recent reports, the individuals involved in those trips were likely seeking weapons procurement deals to include air defense weaponry, missiles, rockets and possibly artillery production facilities. Additionally, speculation has been raised that the trips have also been focused on attaining tunneling technology and possibly assistance in developing Myanmar’s nascent nuclear program.
Awash in natural gas and oil revenues from the recent energy boom, Myanmar now appears to be in a position to pursue more sophisticated weaponry and technologies. We believe Myanmar’s pursuit of military weaponry is currently more likely the case than the pursuit of a nuclear weapon’s program.
Myanmar’s Nuclear History
Myanmar’s nuclear ambitions date back to the 1950s when the government created the Union of Burma Atomic Energy Center tasked with recruiting and training young physicists. The program was eventually discontinued after the military coup of 1962. In 2000, however, the ruling State Peace and Development Council announced that it planned to purchase a small nuclear reactor from Russia, allegedly to better meet its energy needs.
The project was scheduled to begin in 2003 but never materialized with some analysts suspecting that Russia was unwilling to accept the tiny country’s financial promises to pay. However, in May 2007 a new agreement was formally signed between the two countries with Myanmar pledging to pay for the project up front.
According to media reports, AtomStroiExport, the subsidiary of Russia’s Rosatom, will implement the Myanmar nuclear project, which is in charge of construction of nuclear reactors and power plants abroad. The nuclear research center will include a 10 megawatt light-water reactor using enriched uranium not to exceed 20 percent enrichment, significantly lower than the amount necessary for use in nuclear weapons. According to Rosatom Press Secretary Sergey Novikov, Russia will supply the first 10 tons of fuel, which will then be followed by fuel deliveries coordinated by the Vienna-based International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).
While the reactor, if completed, would likely not be suited to construct a nuclear weapon, analysts believe that the accompanying training would provide the basic knowledge required as a foundation for any nuclear weapons development program outside of the research center. While Myanmar is a largely closed society, and the IAEA has little information available regarding the country, we do not believe the military regime possesses the technical sophistication, high-level personnel or resources to genuinely pursue a nuclear weapons program now or even in the mid-term.
Renewed Relationship with North Korea
Despite the concerns regarding the possibility that Myanmar may be pursuing a nuclear program, the evidence available largely does not support the speculation. Of greater concern, however, is that Myanmar has approached North Korea in search of weapons and tunneling technology.
Not much is known of how General Than Shwe, Myanmar’s military leader, perceives his country on a regional or international level. An overtly repressive regime that stifles dissent and has obstructed democracy for over twenty years, the military junta has taken multiple steps to maintain control over its citizenry, going so far as to move the nation’s capital deep into the jungle.
That Myanmar would attempt to align itself with the other pariah nation in the region does make strategic sense, however. Further, Myanmar is well positioned to satisfy the agricultural needs of the North Korean regime while North Korea possess the technological sophistication and hardware to help further bolster Myanmar’s control over its citizenry.
While little is known of the substance of the recent meetings between the two countries, it is likely that the two nations are attempting to develop a better relationship to satisfy their respective needs, particularly in light of their mutual demonization on the world stage.
Outlook
Assuaging some of the fears that analysts skeptical of Myanmar’s nuclear ambitions may have is the fact that the country is a signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. As such, the IAEA maintains significant oversight over the nuclear program that Myanmar may be developing in the near-term.
More importantly, however, is the fact that Myanmar lacks the infrastructure, university system and technical background in developing a nuclear program. As such, any developments that the country may wish to pursue will require outside assistance. It is unlikely that China, though tolerant of much of Myanmar’s behavior, would be willing to accept an additional nuclear power in the region beyond North Korea. Additionally, India would also be reticent to permit a regime as unstable as Myanmar to acquire nuclear weapons.
Of concern is that the United States has remained largely silent about Russia’s assistance to Myanmar in the past year, expressing only some condemnation at the US Department of State level. However, we anticipate that greater attention will be devoted to the situation once construction actually begins on the reactor.
