Highlights
– Talks falter over verification mechanism, country retains label of state sponsor of terror
– Questions remain over who is really in charge in North Korea
– Parties appear flexible, concessions likely in the near-term
Just this week North Korea indicated that it would reintroduce nuclear materials into its reactors after having kicked International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspectors out of the country. The move appears to be in retaliation for the US’s failure to remove North Korea from its list of terrorist states, proscribing any major international financial institution lending within the country.
Despite North Korea’s most recent steps, we believe the US, and the remaining members of the Six-Party talks, are approaching North Korea with greater flexibility in order to avoid a complete breakdown in negotiations. Additionally, we suspect that North Korea is attempting to offset recent leaks regarding the condition of Kim Jong-il and to take advantage of the current financial situation and presidential campaign in the United States.
Progress Appears at a Standstill
The last time that North Korea tested a nuclear weapon was on October 9, 2006, three days after a United Nation’s Security Council (UNSC) presidential statement warned the country against conducting such a test indicating, “that a nuclear test, if carried out by the DPRK, would represent a clear threat to international peace and security.”
The test had a relatively low yield detonation, but sparked immediate international condemnation, including United Nations (UN) Resolution 1718 requiring North Korea to refrain from further tests, rejoin the Nonproliferation Treaty, and abandon its nuclear program.
On February 14, 2007, just four months after UN Resolution 1718, North Korea reached an agreement with other members of the Six-Party talks to begin implementation efforts at denuclearization. As months passed, North Korea appeared to be keeping its end of the bargain and shutting down its nuclear program, according to International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) verification personnel.
The understanding, according to most people familiar with the negotiations, was that once North Korea handed over an inventory of its nuclear material and bomb-making equipment, the US would – after a 45-day review – remove the country from its list of state sponsors of terror. The review period has since passed and North Korea remains listed.
The US justification for its reluctance is that a verification mechanism needs yet to be in place to assure what Pyongyang claims is in fact true. Some analysts believe the verification mechanism currently being proposed has such onerous terms that only a defeated nation would accept them.
Whatever the case may be, the stakes appear too high and the parties too vested in an agreement for any of the members to walk away from the negotiating table. We anticipate that concessions will be made by all sides in the near-term to break the ongoing stalemate.
Health of “Dear Leader” Leaves Doubt
South Korean intelligence sources recently leaked information suggesting that Kim Jong-il may have suffered a stroke explaining his failure to appear in public in recent weeks. With the “Dear Leader” potentially unable to continue his rule, who holds the reigns of power remains murky in North Korea, according to analysts.
While North Korea’s leader appears incapacitated, the sentiment is that the country’s military largely mirrors the approach that Kim Jong-il has taken since he came to power. As such, while a power vacuum may currently exist in the country, the likelihood that any significant changes in state ideology or military posturing will occur is remote.
Outlook
Despite what appears to be US recalcitrance regarding delisting North Korea from its state sponsors of terror list, coupled with Pyongyang’s attempts to flex its muscles again in the international arena with the one chip that it possesses, we believe that the vested interests of all Six-Party members are too high to discontinue negotiations.
South Korea, China, and Japan all have serious concerns over maintaining a certain level of stability in the region, and do not want to see North Korea listed as a pariah state any longer than is necessary. Additionally, the shutdown of North Korea’s nuclear program was a significant accomplishment of the Bush administration and it is unlikely that this achievement would be allowed to languish long or fail.
While Moscow appears less interested than the remaining parties, it would not benefit in interrupting the negotiations for the time being. As such, the climate is still ripe for concessions to be made by both sides to help temper North Korea’s militaristic approach to the negotiations and resolve the issue in the mid-term.
