Highlights:
– Violence throughout September 2008 results in the deaths of 18 people
– Despite regional solidarity, increasing tensions with the United States likely to lead to loss of US aid in mid-term
– While violence has temporarily subsided, clashes likely to increase in run up to December 2008 referendum vote
Violence erupted in the eastern province of Pando at the beginning of September 2008 as anti-and pro-government supporters clashed over Bolivian President Evo Morales’ proposed constitutional reforms. In a referendum vote scheduled for December 7, 2008, President Morales hopes to pass a new constitution that includes agrarian reform, a separate justice system for indigenous groups, and the ability for him to run for additional presidential terms.
Eastern provincial governors remain concerned that they will lose a larger share of lucrative oil profits to the central government, while Morales remains committed to improving the economic position of indigenous peoples.
While violence has calmed for the near-term, a failure to resolve tensions will likely generate renewed violence as the referendum vote draws closer.
Recent Violence
The majority of the violence throughout the start of September was concentrated in Pando, however large scale demonstrations and riots also occurred in the wealthy city of Santa Cruz. Violent incidents included:
• September 9 – Several police officers were beaten in front of television cameras at a protest rally.
• September 9 – Five people were shot at an anti-Morales youth rally in Pando.
• September 10 – 80 people were injured in a clash in Tarija.
• September 11 – Group of anti-government protesters clashed with a pro-government band in Pando using clubs, machetes and shotguns. The violence left 8 people dead and 20 injured.
Additionally, during the week of September 22, 2008, protesters marched on the city of Santa Cruz with dynamite sticks and shotguns. Over the course of the month’s violence, nearly every federal building in Santa Cruz has been looted or vandalized, and a total of 18 people have been killed.
Law and Order Returns, but Negotiations Still Stalled
In response to the ongoing unrest, Morales has taken a number of actions to reinforce law and order. On September 15, 2008 President Morales declared martial law, banning the gathering of three or more people. Martial law currently remains in place, which has allowed Morales to replace the governor of Pando with a military admiral. In addition, Morales had Governor Leopoldo Fernandez arrested on charges of genocide in connection with the deaths of over one dozen rural workers on September 17, 2008.
Outside of security actions, Morales has also sought to reassure that “peace and tranquility” will return to Santa Cruz through negotiations with opposition leaders under the monitoring of representatives from the United Nations (UN) and the Organization of American states. However, the talks stalled after one week and while those involved stated that “significant progress” had been made, major issues are still contested between both parties. The talks were set to resume on September 29, 2008, and in light of one stalled attempt already, it will likely be days before a consensus can be reached.
Additionally, international meetings have been held over the past two weeks regarding Bolivia’s internal dispute. On September 24, 2008, a meeting of the 12-members of the Union of South American Nations (Unasur) took place during the United Nations General Assembly gathering in New York, during which nations such as Chile promised continuing support for Morales’ push for his referendum.
President Hugo Chavez of Venezuela has demonstrated the most active support for Morales during recent weeks, including the expelling of his US ambassador in a show of solidarity. President Chavez continues to support fellow leftist leaders such as Morales, often involving himself in domestic disputes of other countries, in attempts to counter what he considers is undue American influence in the continent.
US Relations Damaged for Long-term
Despite pledges of support from regional leaders, the United States (US) has not supported Morales’ attempts to strengthen the central government’s power, the recent violence, or the Bolivian government’s failure to limit coca production throughout the country in recent years.
On September 26, the US announced that it was planning to suspend trade benefits to Bolivia, including its inclusion in a duty-free program. Since 1991, Bolivia, along with Ecuador, Peru and Colombia, had been granted duty-free status and foreign aid for helping to combat illicit narcotics in their nations.
In recent weeks, Bolivia has expelled representatives from both the US Agency for International Development (USAID) and the US Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA), sparking concerns within the US government that Bolivia should no longer be a recipient of US counter-narcotics aid. The office of the US Trade Representative must still hold a hearing to formally remove the benefits, however the date for the hearing has not been announced.
With the continuing diplomatic tensions over the expulsion of respective ambassadors and potential loss of foreign aid, bilateral relations between Bolivia and the US are likely to worsen in the near-term. Also, as a compromise between the opposition governors and Morales’ administration appears out of reach in the near-term, further protests and potentially violent clashes are likely in the mid-term as the December referendum vote approaches.
