Highlights
– The bombing is expected to test the resolve of Pakistan’s civilian leaders
– The attack bore the hallmarks of al Qaeda or a linked group
– President Zardari faces tremendous pressure to act to quell rising violence
– Additional violence will likely cause increased isolation for Pakistan
On September 20, 2008, a truck laden with 1,300 pounds of explosives crashed through the front gates and detonated in front of the Marriott Hotel in Islamabad, killing at least 53 people, including two United States (US) Department of Defense (DoD) employees and Czech Ambassador Ivo Zdarek .
In addition to carrying 1,300 pounds of military-grade explosives, the truck was carrying artillery and mortar shells to intensify the explosion, which left a crater 60 feet wide and 24 feet deep in front of the main building.
The attack on the Marriott Hotel, a favorite spot for foreigners and the Pakistani elite, will test the resolve of Pakistan’s pro-Western civilian rulers to crackdown against growing Islamic extremist violence.
Newly elected President Asif Ali Zardari will be under increasing pressure to act to quell the rising violence. However, in the near-term, we expect the President to maintain a cautious approach when dealing with Islamic militants, and he is unlikely to authorize a full-scale military offensive into the tribal regions located along the Pakistan/Afghanistan border.
Primary Target
On September 22, 2008, Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani announced that the terrorists who carried out the truck bombing at the Marriott Hotel were aiming to strike Pakistani leaders meeting nearby.
Political leaders, including President Zardari, and other key figures were attending dinner at the Prime Minister’s House at the time of the bombing, which is located in close proximity to the Marriott Hotel. However, according to Gilani, the terrorists could not reach the house because of tight security arrangements and decided to attack a secondary target.
“All Roads Lead to Waziristan”
A little known group called Fedayeen-e-Islam claimed responsibility for the attack. It remains unclear if the group has links to al Qaeda or is another name for an existing group. Pakistani and US officials believe the Pakistani Taliban, which is comprised of a myriad of Islamist militant groups and believed to be linked to al Qaeda, is the prime suspect behind the bombings. However, there is increased speculation that al Qaeda itself is directly responsible for the attack, as reports have circulated that Pakistani intelligence eavesdroppers heard al Qaeda operatives celebrating the September 20th bombing.
Pakistan’s Interior Minister Rehman Malik stated that an initial investigation into the bombing revealed the attack had links with Pakistan’s tribal areas, but did not disclose further details. Malik was quoted as saying, “It is yet premature to blame any particular group or individual for the blast, however, all roads lead to Waziristan.”
The blast will place additional pressure on President Zardari and other civilian leaders to act aggressively against militants operating along the Pakistan/Afghanistan border. The explosion will particularly exacerbate tensions between the US and Pakistan over how aggressively Pakistan is perceived to be cracking down on militants. India, too, claims it is feeling the effect on Pakistan’s mounting Islamic insurgency, as police in New Delhi claimed that the Pakistani Islamist group, Lashkar-e-Tayyaba, was behind the bombs that ripped through Delhi markets on September 13, 2008 .
If the investigation reveals the attack originated from the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) or by the Pakistani Taliban as Malik has insinuated, President Zardari will largely be forced to act in the region. The President will be under pressure from the military and an increasingly disgruntled populace angry about the deteriorating security situation. In addition, the US will likely continue, if not step up, air strikes on the Pakistan side of the border if Zardari does not act. Recent US air strikes in the region have been controversial and extremely unpopular throughout Pakistan, threatening to break up the US-Pakistan alliance.
Future Outlook
The Marriott Hotel blast has underscored the extent to which Pakistan’s government is torn between cracking down on militancy and placating angry Pakistanis who do not want to be dictated to by the US. Many Pakistanis believe the attack was retribution for the military’s current campaign in the Bajaur region, which may cause further opposition to military action in the northwest from some sectors of the population.
In the near to mid-term, both the US and Pakistan must rethink their strategies in the conflict. The public reaction in Pakistan to the bomb attack was significant in that it did not roundly condemn the militants but reflected widespread animosity toward the US military policy in neighboring Afghanistan and along the border regions, indicating that Zardari will be forced to alter his alliance with the US.
While Pakistan relies on the US for much needed economic and military aid, President Zardari must balance between appeasing the populace and Washington, something that will prove difficult in the near-term. Zardari will likely continue opposing US air strikes on Pakistani territory and refuse American ground troops on his country’s soil. The issue of US air strikes in the northwest will be a major point of contention between the two countries in the near-term, likely causing the relationship to deteriorate further.
Ultimately, President Zardari must act in the northwest to quell rising militancy. If he chooses not to, Pakistan will find itself isolated from the outside world, with foreign investment and much-needed economic aid likely to decrease, as nations around the world will find the country too dangerous a place to conduct business. In addition, Zardari will face an increasingly hostile Parliament and populace if effective action is not taken.
While Zardari debates possible action in the country’s northwest, which certainly includes increased military action, violence in FATA and within Pakistan’s major cities is likely to continue in the near to mid-term.