Highlights:
– President Alvaro Uribe switches position on running for third term
– Political successors likely to emerge in near-term with new announcement
– Next candidate likely to remain in line with current administration’s policies
President Alvaro Uribe addressed a university crowd on September 10, 2008 and gave the clearest indication to date that he would not push for a constitutional referendum to allow him to run for a third term in the presidential elections in 2010. President Uribe previously urged Congress to consider a constitutional reform proposal allowing for a third term, sparking concern among critics that such a move would undermine the country’s democratic process and balance of power.
President Uribe has apparently reversed this position, but leaves the door open to return in 2014 elections instead. Potential contenders for the presidential seat will likely emerge in the coming months as new leaders vie for political attention and begin to garner campaign support.
Uribe Reverses His Stance
In addressing a university audience on September 10, 2008 President Uribe called on the nation to seek out other candidates to fill his position and continue the fight against left-wing insurgents and to seek out efforts to attract investment. President Uribe also asked Congress to set aside a proposed referendum that was intended to alter the constitution to allow him to seek a third term in the presidential elections in 2010. He stated that other things “would be much better for the future of Colombia than to seek my re-election right now.”
However, President Uribe did not eliminate the possibility of returning to the presidential scene to campaign in the 2014 elections. He alluded to this option in the September 10 address, warning that the constitution can be easily changed to allow such a run. The constitution must still be amended to allow for a third term by a former president, even if it is not in succession. The constitution was first amended to allow for even a second term for Uribe in 2006.
Possible Successors
With the opening of the door for other candidates to run for president in the upcoming elections, several figures will likely emerge as potential candidates.
First, Defense Minister Juan Manuel Santos is rumored to be interested in the position. Minister Santos has been influential in President Uribe’s success in gaining the upper hand over terrorist guerillas, such as the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), by setting hard-line policies and negotiation terms in recent years. Colombian citizens will likely largely support him, as the vast majority of the public applauds President Uribe’s success in the area of domestic security.
A second possible contender may be Colombia’s ambassador to Great Britain and Northern Ireland, Noemi Sanin. A lawyer and former fellow at Harvard University, Sanin has served as a diplomat for Colombia to both the United Kingdom and Venezuela. Sanin was also the first female to lead a financial institution within Colombia during her tenure as president of Colmena (Savings and Building Society). Sanin will also likely be well received by the population and especially abroad in Western nations. The United States currently maintains close bi-lateral relations with President Uribe’s administration, who is seen as the strongest US ally in the region and a counter to the leftist administrations within Bolivia and Venezuela.
Future Outlook
As President Uribe’s approval rating among the people remains at over 80 percent thanks to his hardline law-and-order approach in dealing with the country’s security situation, the next leader will likely not divert too strongly from similar policies during the campaign and the beginning of their term in 2011.
President Uribe will is expected to finish his term as promised, but will likely remain vocal about potential candidates throughout the next president’s term. President Uribe was careful to leave the possibility open for an additional term in 2014, allowing himself the option of returning to lead if the next president deviates too far from his policies.
The United States will likely endorse either Santos or Sanin for the position if they choose to run, as they both remain inline with US policies for the region.
