Highlights
– Angola holds first legislative elections in 16 years on September 5, 2008
– Ruling MPLA wins 82 percent of the votes, oppositional party UNITA wins 10 percent
– Results of elections are said to foreshadow next year’s presidential elections
– Peaceful turnout of the elections has delivered a beacon of hope to other African countries, as well as prospects for positive socioeconomic change in the near to mid-term
On September 5 and 6, 2008, more than 8 million registered voters took part in Angola’s first legislative elections in 16 years, following the 1992 presidential elections during a brief break in Angola’s 27 year-long civil war. After a surprisingly peaceful, yet highly disorganized election process, President Eduardo dos Santos’ ruling Popular Movement for the Liberation of Angola (MPLA) won 82 percent of the votes, leaving ten percent for the opposition, the National Union for the Total Independence of Angola (UNITA). International monitoring groups from the European Union (EU) and three African observer teams were present during the elections, with observers giving a “generally clean bill of heath” to the elections and regarding them as “tranquil and peaceful.”
With the MPLA’s overwhelming win in the elections, political analysts have projected that President Dos Santos is sizing up the political environment for next year’s presidential elections.
As the majority of the governing power lies in the presidency, next year’s elections are crucial. Since the principle prize will be government control of the country’s large oil revenues, it is likely that President Dos Santos will rally support in order to remain in power.
History of Defeat
UNITA leader Isaias Samakuva announced on September 9, 2008, that he was accepting the results from the votes. With almost 80 percent of the ballots counted, Angola’s longtime ruling party had more than 80 percent of the vote. Samakuva said at a press conference last week, “Despite all that has happened, UNITA’s leadership accepts the election results.” Additionally, Samakuva called on “the wining party to govern in the interest of Angolans.”
The country’s last elections were held in 1992, during a break in decades of civil war that began in 1975. UNITA, a rebel group at that time, refused to accept the results that the MPLA had won the presidency. More fighting broke out, prompting the MPLA to issue weapons to citizens to protect themselves against the UNITA until the war finally ended in 2002 when the army killed UNITA leader Jonas Savimbi.
Though international human rights groups accuse Dos Santos’ once-Marxist MPLA of corruption and mismanagement, the party campaigned in this year’s elections on promises to keep transforming a nation destroyed by civil war. While the opposition had urged impoverished Angolans to vote for change, many Angolans continue to link UNITA’s image with the horrors of war. As such, the MPLA’s victory was nearly inevitable given the history of UNITA in Angola.
Outlook: Increased Oil Wealth and the Presidency
The outcome of the September 2008 elections is significant to the government’s control of the country’s oil revenues, which amounted to $40 billion last year. As the newest member of OPEC this year and the second largest African oil producer, Angola overtook Saudi Arabia as the leading source of crude oil for China and is the sixth-largest United States supplier, exporting 40 percent of its production to the US. Moreover, according to the International Monetary Fund, Angola’s oil output is projected to “surpass two million barrels a day next year and increase 90 percent from 2005 levels by 2010.” Angola may be rich in oil, as well as diamonds, but little of that wealth has trickled down to its vastly poor society and the country’s infrastructure remains in disrepair.
Five years after the end of a devastating civil war, in which at least half a million people are thought to have died, Angola has begun the painstaking process of reconstruction, but has yet to accomplish much for its people.
President Dos Santos, who has ruled for 29 years and holds much of the responsibility for the current state of Angola, has not made any sign of anointing a successor. Moreover, this month’s polls were largely seen as a dry run for next year’s presidential elections, which President Dos Santos and his party are sized up to win once again.
Dos Santos will have the largest pool of oil wealth in Angola’s history at his disposal and will likely be pressured to keep his campaign promises of “transforming a nation destroyed by civil war.” However, such improvements remain a long-term goal and little progress will likely be achieved in the near to mid-term.