Highlights
• Containing rising Islamic militancy will be the primary goal for President Zardari
• The violent environment and continued political instability has negatively impacted Pakistan’s economic situation
• Zardari will have difficulty maintaining support from his wide political base, especially as he attempts to formulate a policy to deal with Islamic militancy
On September 6, 2008 Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) chairman Asif Ali Zardari was elected President of Pakistan. Zardari won with nearly 70 percent of the votes cast with his supporters hailing the win as a “victory for democracy.”
The results were widely expected, as he never faced serious competition from the two other candidates, which included Saeeduz Zaman Siddiquia from the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) party, and Mushahid Hussain Sayed representing the party that backed former President Pervez Musharraf.
The victory for Asif Ali Zardari caps a remarkable rise from jail, exile, and his wife Benazir Bhutto’s assassination on December 27, 2007 . The controversial leader, who has been accused of corruption in the past and often referred to as ‘Mr. Ten Percent’ by the Pakistani public, takes over the presidency at a time when the country is facing a powerful Taliban-led insurgency in the northwest and an economy that is suffering from rapid inflation and a plunging stock market.
The election of Zardari will likely provide some near-term political stability in Pakistan, but the longevity of the stability will ultimately depend on Zardari’s approach to the country’s most daunting challenges. Without prompt action, Zardari’s popularity will decrease and create further division throughout the country.
Militant Challenge
The primary challenge President Zardari will face in his new position is the rising Islamic militancy, led by al Qaeda extremists and Taliban militants based in the North West Frontier Province (NFWP) and the Federal Administered Tribal Areas (FATA).
The militant threat was underscored when just before the vote a suicide bomber killed 33 people in an attack on a police post in the northwestern city of Peshawar, further evidence the country, especially the northwest, is experiencing a security breakdown. Tensions rose further on September 3, 2008 after a failed assassination attempt on Prime Minister Yousef Raza Gilani, whose car was hit by sniper fire as it drove to meet Zardari at an airport .
As al Qaeda and the Taliban have largely been able to regroup along the border regions between Pakistan and Afghanistan, the United States and North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) countries are demanding action by the Pakistani government. Zardari will need to preside over a policy that will clamp down on Taliban and al Qaeda extremists attacking targets in Pakistan and Afghanistan without provoking a tribal uprising or alienating the Pakistani public, something that will prove to be extremely difficult.
Zardari has vowed to be tough on militancy, a stance that plays well in the US. However, US intelligence officials are skeptical of the new President’s promises, as Zardari has often engaged in peace talks and ceasefires with Taliban militants, something the US believes allows the extremists time to regroup and rearm. While many blame the recent Taliban uprising in the country on former Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf’s relationship with Washington, Taliban militants have shown no sign of abating their campaign against the Pakistani military in the northwest or targeting government facilities in other parts of the country.
Economic Challenge
In addition to taking one of the world’s toughest and most dangerous political posts, Zardari will face severe economic challenges, including tackling a high inflation rate and dealing with a stock market that has plunged more than 40 percent since January 2008. The country’s economic problems are enormous, including falling foreign exchange reserves, devaluing rupee, struggling exports, widening trade and current deficit, and decreased confidence among investors.
There is little doubt that the political instability in Pakistan, including such actions as then-President Musharraf declaring emergency law in November 2007, the assassination of Benazir Bhutto in December 2007, and the continued political squabbling of political parties, has had serious economic consequences for the country. The election of Zardari as President may result in a sense of political stability, as the PPP chairman achieved a clear victory over rival parties and Musharraf is now removed from the political picture.
However, Zardari must first reverse the country’s deteriorating law and order situation before the economy can achieve stable growth, as the instability has pressured many foreign investors to withdraw their funds from the market.
• In the near to mid-term, Zardari will experience trouble encouraging foreign investment and attracting foreign aid.
The US, which has given Pakistan billions in aid money, is likely to scrutinize more closely its distribution of financial assistance as allegations persist that as much as 70 percent of aid had been misspent. However, maintaining aid from the US will be one of the primary near-term goals for Zardari and his new government.
Political Outlook
As President, Zardari holds near dictatorial clout, as he is commander-in-chief of the armed forces, custodian of the country’s growing nuclear arsenal, has the power to appoint all three military service chiefs, and the ability to dissolve parliament. Zardari previously handpicked Prime Minister Gilani and his PPP is the dominant party in parliament. However, Zardari will need all the political clout he can muster to face the country’s daunting challenges.
Zardari will need to rise above his previous reputation of being a corrupt official, which will prove to be difficult as the Bhutto clan and some within the PPP remain divided over Zardari’s rise to power. Zardari has also yet to outline a clear vision for the country other than saying he wants to be “free, pluralistic, and democratic.” However, Zardari has bought himself time by gathering a strong nationwide political base, primarily by gathering the support of smaller regional parties from three provinces that largely felt left out of the nation’s power structure, including Sindh, Baluchistan, and NWFP.
Despite gaining initial support, Zardari will find it difficult to maintain nationwide support if he is unable to contain the rising militant violence and quickly rectify the economic problems. In addition, pressure from the US will force Zardari to act in the tribal regions, actions that may ultimately alienate some of his support base. In the near-term, the inability of the Pakistani government to formulate effective, long-term solutions to the problems in the tribal areas will hurt Zardari politically, prompting further opposition around the country, and possibly, from within the PPP and Bhutto clan.
