Highlights
• Iraq government submitted requests for more than $9 billion in arms purchases in the past three months
• US Pentagon and Kurdish leaders apprehensive about arms sales in the midst of political stalemate on key issues
• Arms purchase likely to proceed despite reservations
The US Department of Defense (DoD) announced on September 5, 2008 it received a request from the Iraqi government on August 27, 2008 to purchase 36 updated F-16 fighter aircraft from Lockheed Martin. The Iraqi government’s request follows a long line of arms purchase proposals as the Iraqi government seeks to utilize its vast oil revenues to prepare to defend its territory in a post-US military withdrawal Iraq.
Previous arms purchase requests include requests in June and July 2008 totaling $8.7 billion, including the purchase of 392 Light Armored Vehicles, 24 Bell Armed 407 helicopters or 24 Boeing AH-6 helicopters, six C-130J aircraft, along with engines and other equipment, missiles, 565 120mm mortars, 665 81mm mortars, 200 AGM-114M Hellfire missiles, machine guns, rocket launchers, radios and anti-tank weapons. If approved, the F-16 fighter aircraft and helicopters will require several years in production before they are operational in Iraq.
With Iraq emerging as the US defense industry’s most lucrative client, the US Congress will likely approve the Iraq arms purchases. However, should the US and Iraq fail to reach a long-term security agreement or the Iraqi government fail to meet necessary political benchmarks, US Congressional approval would likely be withdrawn prior to delivery.
US and Kurdish Reservations
The DoD, for the most part, supports the sale of advanced weaponry to the Iraqi government, noting Iraq’s security forces will need advanced weaponry to defend its territory following the withdrawal of US forces. Also, the international sale of F-16 fighter aircraft is a large source of revenue for the defense industry and has kept the jets in production following the US military’s transition to purchasing the more advanced F-22 fighter jets. However, the Pentagon is currently apprehensive about the future viability of the Iraq government, evident by its decision to stall troop withdrawal to a future date.
The Pentagon is most concerned by the recent lull in Iraqi political progress, evident by the Iraqi government’s failure to pass the draft Provincial Elections Law (Previous Report), the draft National Hydrocarbons Law (Previous Report), and the Status of Kirkuk (Previous Report). The government’s ability to pass universally accepted laws addressing these three issues, as well as the viability of reports that the Sadr Militia is disarming, is integral to the future stability of a unified Iraqi government. The absence of an agreement on these key issues, leave the future of the unified Iraqi government in question, making the collapse of proportional representation more likely in the long-term. In which case, worst-case political scenarios could create an environment in which US arms could be used against its Kurdish or Gulf allies.
Likewise, Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) leaders are concerned the Kurdish semi-autonomous region could become the target of a future Iraqi government, should the unified Iraqi government collapse. Though active participants in the Iraqi government, Kurdish leaders were concerned by the government’s decision to force Kurdish leaders to evacuate their offices in Khanaquin, one of the cities that was subject to Arabization under the Saddam regime due to its vast oil resources.
Future of US Arms Sales to Iraq
Like the US government, Kurdish leaders agree the Iraqi government requires advanced weaponry to defend its territory. However, sharing the sentiments of the US State Department and Pentagon, Kurdish leaders will be less apprehensive about signing large arms agreements with the Iraqi government after the previously delineated political benchmarks are met.
Nonetheless, the US Congress will likely approve the sale of F-16 fighter aircraft, along with previous Iraq arms purchase requests, in order to both support growth in the US defense industry and to ensure the Iraq government’s ability to defend itself in a post-US withdrawal environment.
US Congressional members and DoD officials recognize that Iraq will acquire the weapons from another manufacturer if not the US, and wish to show support for the Iraq military. US officials also realize that the most controversial of the aircraft and weapons in question will require several years in production before they are operational in Iraq, leaving the US government ample time to ensure viability of Iraqi security prior to delivery of the weapons systems.
