Highlights
– Al-Qaeda video warns against depicting the Prophet Muhammad, warns of future attacks
– Danish intelligence agency reports risk of an attack at an all time high
– Islamic extremists will continue to plot attacks against Danish institutions and interests in the long-term
Al-Qaeda’s media wing, al-Sahab, released a new video that issues fresh threats against Denmark for defaming the Prophet Muhammad, claiming that the June 2, 2008 bombing at the Danish embassy in Pakistan is the first of many attacks to target the European nation. The video features al-Qaeda commander in Afghanistan Mustafa Abu al-Yazid, who was previously believed to be killed by an August 2008 air strike in Pakistan’s northwest tribal region, and a Saudi jihadist, who purportedly carried out the June 2nd suicide attack .
Since Danish newspaper, Jyllands-Posten, first published what were perceived as anti-Islam cartoons depicting the Prophet Muhammad in 2005, Denmark has weathered violent demonstrations and several retaliatory terror plots. Further sparking outrage across the Muslim world, Denmark’s five leading daily newspapers decided to republish the cartoons in February 2008, in response to a thwarted Islamic extremist murder plot targeting Danish cartoonist, Kurt Westergaard (Previous Report).
The subsequent violent protests, the June 2, 2008 embassy attack in Pakistan, and the new video again highlight Denmark’s position as a high priority target for Islamic extremists at home and abroad in the near-term.
Facing the Worst Terror Threat in Years
Denmark’s Security and Intelligence Service (PET) issued a report in August 2008 that concluded the country is facing its worst terror threat in many years and that an attack could occur at any time. Specifically, the PET report states “there are people and groups at home that are planning acts of terror here or abroad.” In addition to the perceived insults to the Prophet Muhammad, Denmark’s involvement in Iraq and Afghanistan greatly increase the threat of an attack. While Denmark withdrew its forces from Iraq in 2007, it still contributes 600 soldiers as part of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)-led mission in Afghanistan.
Further underscoring Denmark’s growing extremist environment, Danish authorities have conducted several anti-terror raids since 2005.
• November 2007: Authorities reportedly thwarted a bombing plot on an unidentified target. A Palestinian immigrant, an Iraqi Kurd and a Danish convert to Islam were found guilty and sentenced to 11 years in prison.
• September 2007: Authorities arrested two alleged militants of Afghan and Pakistani origin in Copenhagen. The suspects had conducted tests for making triacetone triperoxide (TATP), the same materials used by the 7/7 London bombers. With the trial underway, authorities allege the two had received terrorist training in Pakistan and were plotting to bomb unspecified targets in Copenhagen.
• October 2005: Police arrested four young Muslims in Copenhagen who were suspected of plotting attacks. In 2007, a Danish court convicted one of the suspects of involvement of a terror plot uncovered in Bosnia.
• September 2005: A Moroccan-born Danish citizen is arrested for the promotion of terrorism across Europe after authorities found a massive stockpile of digital jihadist propaganda calling for a holy war against the West (Previous Report).
A Growing Discontent at Home
Approximately 200,000 out of the 5.5 million people living in Denmark are believed to be Muslim. However, the country’s role in the controversial Muhammad cartoon crisis and its continued troop deployments in Afghanistan make the country a popular target for Islamic extremists on an international level. At home, reports of job discrimination and integration problems victimizing Muslim immigrants have fostered a breeding ground for dissatisfaction and have increased the likelihood that younger Danish Muslims could turn against their own country.
While we continue to believe that al-Qaeda digital productions are not a reliable indicator for an attack in the near-term, Islamic extremists will likely continue to plot attacks against Danish institutions in the long-term.
