Highlights
-Prime Minister Stephan Harper announces decision to dissolve Parliament
-New elections scheduled for October 14, 2008
-Conservative party hopes to win clear majority in parliament, however new elections will likely result in a continuing minority government
On September 7, 2008, Canadian Prime Minister (PM) Harper announced his decision to dissolve Parliament and call for new national elections. Likely looking to gain a majority in Parliament for his Conservative party, the new elections scheduled for October will be the third national ballots cast within four years. PM Harper has introduced more conservative policies throughout his presidential tenure, causing friction with the long-standing Liberal party. PM Harper’s decision will likely further widen the divide between Liberal and Conservative candidates in the near-term.
New Elections
When PM Harper came to power in 2006, electoral legislation set the date for the next election for October 2009. However, a loophole allows the PM to ask for the governor general to dissolve Parliament. PM Harper visited Governor General Michaelle Jean in the days before September 7, 2008 to ask her to dissolve Parliament. Canada’s governor general is British Queen Elizabeth II’s representative within the country, and remains the head of state. However, the position is largely ceremonial and usually follows the directions of the PM.
Currently, Harper’s Conservative party holds 127 of the 308 parliamentary seats, with the rival Liberal maintaining 95 positions. The Conservatives first unseated the Liberal party from its nearly 13 years in leading parliament in 2006; however, the party was unable to gain the majority necessary for independent legislative control. The Conservatives have been forced to rely on opposition lawmakers to pass legislation and pass budgets in coalitions. In the new elections, the party must win an additional 28 seats to gain a clear majority.
Conservatives and Critics
While opposition parties remain fearful of more conservative legislation if the Conservatives win the parliament majority, PM Harper has staunchly defended the action. Harper stated that “between now and October 14, 2008, Canadians will choose a government to look out for their interests at a time of global economic trouble”. While gaining the political upper hand over the Liberal party is likely the primary objective for the new elections, PM Harper claims that a failure by the minority government to pass key legislation issues and his opposition to an energy tax proposed by the opposition are the main reasons for Parliament’s dissolution.
Critics remain firm that PM Harper is only taking advantage of the political timing, as the Conservative party currently remains slightly ahead of the Liberals in public opinion. Liberal leader Stephane Dion, the former environmental minister, has accused Harper of attempting to destroy the Liberal brand, and that the new election will “offer a stark choice between the Liberals and the most Conservative government in Canada’s history.” Liberal supporters remain concerned over Harper’s decision to extend Canada’s military presence in Afghanistan, which has cost the lives of 96 Canadian soldiers thus far, and it will likely remain a large issue leading up to the election.
Outlook
The timing of the new elections is likely motivated by a variety of reasons. It remains somewhat uncertain what the exact outcome of the election will be, however a recent poll indicated that 38 percent of Canadians would vote for the Conservatives in a new election, while only 34 percent of the population would be in favor of the Liberals – smaller oppositions parties gained the remaining percentages.
While the Conservatives remains slightly ahead, the margin of difference is not large and will likely result in the Conservatives not winning the clear majority they desire. Even if the Conservatives increase their number of parliamentary seats, not attaining a clear majority will likely been seen as a loss for PM Harper. Both parties will intensify their campaigns in the lead up to the October 14 elections.
Also, the upcoming presidential election in the United States (US) likely remains a slightly lower, yet still significant, influence on the moved-up elections. While Canadian politics claim not to be affected by the US, the nations’ bi-lateral relations often correspond to similar policies. If the US Democratic candidate successfully wins the presidency in November 2008, it will likely bolster the Liberals platform within Canada. PM Harper, who remains more conservative like the current-ruling Republican Party in the US, likely wishes to capitalize on his current support both domestically and from the US.