Highlights
– Jordan in secret talks with Hamas leaders
– News of the talks angered Israeli and PA leaders
– Talks with Hamas aimed at appeasing Jordan’s large Palestinian population
On August 19, 2008, news of secret talks between the Jordanian government and Hamas leaders was leaked to the media. Jordanian and Hamas representatives could not confirm the date of their first contact, but they estimate the two parties have been in communication for 18 months. News of the secret talks angered Israeli and Palestinian Authority representatives who claim Jordanian communication with the terrorist group adds legitimacy to the movement and undermines the Israeli-Palestinian peace talks.
Though the end of a nine year silence between the Jordanian government and Hamas leaders is a major boon for the militant group, it does not indicate Jordanian approval of the group’s methods or leadership. Rather, it reflects the Jordanian leaderships’ awareness of the impact any tension or peace treaty in the Palestinian Territories will have on political stability in Jordan.
Jordanian Motivations
Relations between Jordan and Hamas soured in 1999, when the Jordanian government expelled Hamas leaders for engaging in operational planning from its territory. Friction between the two parties escalated again in April and May 2006, when Jordan arrested more than 20 individuals for connections to Hamas, including a three man Palestinian cell. The Jordanian government decided to re-engage the movement because Jordan is weary of the movement and its impact on the peace process, and of the Jordanian Muslim Brotherhood (JMB) and its political wing the Islamic Action Front (IAF).
Regionally, the Jordanian government is concerned that an Israeli-Palestinian peace treaty will come at the expense of Jordanian interests. Jordan opposes any settlement that would produce a federated Jordanian-Palestinian state or that the collapse of talks would send a new wave of refugees into Jordan. Also, a deal that is viewed as unacceptable by Palestinians residing in Jordan could lead to widespread demonstrations and possibly even riots in Palestinian majority neighborhoods.
Domestically, Hamas’ influence in the JMB and the IAF has grown significantly. The game changer for the JMB was the 2007 district and the 2008 parliamentary elections (Previous Report), in which the Jordanian government limited the IAF’s access to voters. The result of the IAF’s poor showing and subjugation by Jordanian leaders was a switch in the leadership of the JMB and IAF from moderates to pro-Hamas conservatives. As a result, the Jordanian government has increased incentive to open communication lines with Hamas leaders in order to avert future confrontations between JMB and IAF members and the Jordanian government.
Future Outlook
Talks between the Jordanian government and Hamas will not lead to a peace treaty between the two parties and is unlikely to directly impact Israeli-Palestinian peace negotiations. However, Jordanian-Hamas talks are a positive step for JMB/IAF and Jordanian government relations and a step that will appease Jordan’s large Palestinian population.
Therefore, despite Israeli and PA objections, Jordan will continue working on behalf of the peace process but is unlikely to cease communicating with Hamas leaders in the near-term.
