Highlights
– Russia and Syria are involved in high-level arms-related talks
– Recent activity in the Syrian port of Tartus raises questions of Russia’s long-term intentions in the region
– Potential Russian weapons sales may alter the balance of power between Israel and Syria
On August 21, 2008 Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and Russian President Dmitri Medvedev met at the Black Sea resort of Sochi to discuss “deals on anti-aircraft and anti-tank missile systems.”
Afterwards Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, was quoted as saying, “Russia is ready to consider requests from the Syrian side on buying more arms. We are indeed prepared to sell only defensive weapons which do not violate the regional balance of power.”
The United States (US) Department of State immediately released a statement in response to Lavrov’s comments, suggesting the US remained concerned over potential additional arms sales to Syria and urged the Russian government not to move forward.
While several of the details remain unknown, we believe the latest meeting in Sochi only further solidified military relations between Russia and Syria.
Weapons In Question
Although Russia has long supplied arms to Syria, it has held back until now on providing the next generation of surface-to-surface missiles. However, in the latest meeting, President al-Assad made clear that he was hoping to capitalize on rising tensions between Moscow and the West and was all too eager to meet Medvedev is Sochi regarding future military cooperation.
During the meeting, al-Assad praised Russia’s actions in Georgia and Moscow’s “courageous” response to the actions taken by Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili. President al-Assad signaled his willingness to host Russian Iskander missiles, which are believed to be capable of overcoming sophisticated anti-missile defenses and hitting targets at a distance of 280 kilometers. According to Russian media sources, al-Assad offered to host the missiles as a response to a deal signed by the US and Poland to deploy elements of a missile defense system in Poland.
Syria is interested in purchasing Russia’s Pantsyr-S1 air defense missile system, the BUK-M1 surface-to-air medium-range missile system, military aircraft and other hardware. Reports indicate that Syria is attempting to purchase the S-300 long-range surface-to-air missile, which would effectively pose a threat to US aircraft operating in the region, as well as alter the military balance of power with Israel.
Port of Tartus
Since the meeting between al-Assad and Medvedev, there has been speculation that Russia is aiming to reactivate an old Cold War naval installation with Syria. During the Cold War, Russia operated naval bases in Syria’s Tartus and Latakia ports, supporting the Black Sea fleet’s 720th Logistics Support Points. However, these bases were deactivated after the collapse of the Soviet Union in the early 1990’s.
Over the past few years, defense analysts have kept a close eye on the Russian Navy’s activity at the Syrian port of Tartus, as fears have grown that Moscow is keen to transform what was little more than a refueling station into a fully-fledged Russian Mediterranean fleet naval base. It would also provide a viable site to relocate much of the Black Sea fleet currently held up in Sevastopol, especially in light of Moscow’s deteriorating relationship with Ukraine.
Satellite photos of Russian involvement in dredging the port to allow access to larger vessels provides additional evidence to support this theory. This scenario would also place a resurgent Russia in close proximity to Israel and to the strategic Turkish port of Ceyhan, the terminus of a major new oil pipeline linked to the Azerbaijani port of Baku.
If the major base at Tartus is reactivated, it would result in an increased Russian presence in the Mediterranean and involve the deployment of high-profile air defense missiles and surveillance systems around Russian-manned installations, impacting the military balance of power between Syria and Israel.
Outlook
With mixed signals coming from Damascus and Moscow, the nature of the meeting between al-Assad and Medvedev in regards to military cooperation remains unknown. However, Russia is promising to consider the sale of “defensive” weapons to Syria, but providing little detail to what kind of weapons it is preparing to sell, causing unease in both the US and Israel.
In light of recent reports suggesting Israel helped arm Georgia ahead of fighting in South Ossetia, Russia has made it clear of its dissatisfaction, raising the specter of a Cold War-style standoff in the Middle East between Russian-backed Syria and US-backed Israel. In addition, an increased Russian naval presence in the Mediterranean Sea will not be welcomed by the US and Israel, as Russian intentions remain blurred.
The latest meeting in Sochi between Russia and Syria only solidified military relations between the two countries, which we expect to continue for the long-term. Whether Russia will agree to sell S-300 missiles or other advanced weapons remains to be seen, as does the possible utilization of the port of Tartus.
However, Russia’s proactive approach with Syria is troublesome for Israel and the US, and ultimately indicates Russia is seeking further influence in the Mediterranean and in the wider Middle East region.
