Highlights
– Sharif announces decision to formally withdraw from Pakistan’s coalition government
– PPP nominates Zardari as presidential candidate
– Government formally bans the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan, after the group claims responsibility for the deadly twin suicide blasts last week
– Islamic militancy likely to continue due to prolonged political turmoil
On August 25, 2008, the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) withdrew from Pakistan’s governing coalition, after threatening to do so for months. PML-N leader and former prime minister, Nawaz Sharif announced that the split was due to irreconcilable differences between the PML-N and the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP). As we previously reported, the two parties formed an alliance after a resounding victory in the February 2008 elections (Previous Report).
PML-N leaders repeatedly threatened to withdraw from the coalition government after the PPP, which holds a slim majority of the coalition, failed to reinstate the Supreme Court justices deposed by former President Pervez Musharraf in November 2007. The two parties finally agreed to impeach Musharraf days before his August 18, 2008 resignation; however, the PPP has shown no signs of reinstating the controversial judges.
The political uncertainty has already led to a dramatic increase in violence throughout the country over the past year, as militants take advantage of the ongoing unrest in Islamabad. The dramatic resignation of the PML-N from the coalition will likely further increase militant attacks for the near to mid-term.
Presidential Nominees
Pakistan’s election commission announced that the country will hold a presidential election on September 6, 2008, to elect Musharraf’s replacement.
Former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto’s husband, Asif Ali Zardari, was nominated for the position by the PPP on August 22, 2008. According to the party’s deputy secretary general, Zardari was unanimously chosen to run in the upcoming polls. Party leaders also alleged that the decision gained PML-N approval before the formal announcement last week.
However, within hours of the announcement the PML-N reported the nomination was the PPP’s “own decision” and it would not support a president “with the same powers that Musharraf had, mainly the power to dissolve parliament.” After withdrawing from the coalition, Sharif named the retired Supreme Court chief justice Saeed uz Zaman Siddiqui as the party’s presidential nominee. Siddiqui has not yet accepted the nomination; however, as a long-time political ally of Sharif he is unlikely to refuse the endorsement.
Belated Acknowledgement of Rising Militancy
Amid party clashes, the government formally banned the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) on August 25, 2008. The group is an umbrella militant group officially formed in December 2007 and based in the tribal areas of Pakistan, along the Afghan border. The ban comes after the group claimed responsibility for the twin suicide bombing on a weapons factory outside Islamabad last week. The attack killed at least 67 people, making it the deadliest incident since October 2007, when two suicide bombers targeted Bhutto during a homecoming parade in Karachi .
Zardari also conceded that the TTP are gaining an upper hand, stating “The issue, which is not just a bad-case scenario as far as Pakistan is concerned or as Afghanistan is concerned but is going to be spreading further. The whole world is going to be affected by it.” The TTP has repeatedly violated a ceasefire agreement with the government, launching assaults on security forces, government buildings and schools in the volatile North West Frontier Province.
Continued Political Strife Expected
Although the restoration of the Supreme Court judges was the main sticking point between the PML-N and the PPP, the ruling government has still not given any time frame for the promised reinstatement. The PPP is likely stalling due to fears that the judges could end an amnesty on corruption charges against Zardari. However, the PPP maintains it has enough support from smaller parties within the coalition that it will not lose control of Parliament.
If Siddiqui accepts the PML-N’s nomination and runs for president, he will pose a significant challenge to Zardari. The former judge is a highly respected figure in Pakistan’s legal community and a critic of Musharraf.
Regardless, the political turmoil is unlikely to be resolved in the near-term and terrorist attacks in both the volatile border region, as well as within key urban cities will likely continue for the near to mid-term.
