Highlights
• Serbia forms a pro-European government in July 2008 and affirms its commitment to Europe with arrest of Radovan Karadzic weeks later
• Path to European Union remains blocked until additional high profile war crimes suspects are brought to justice
Almost two months of political dealings and negotiations after the May 2008 parliamentary elections resulted in Serbia’s socialists deciding to join President Tadic’s pro-European bloc. The new, and unlikely, alliance formed a majority in the Parliament, ending the speculation regarding what direction the country would take in the near future.
The government was formed on July 7, stating as its primary goals integration into the European Union (EU) and preservation of Kosovo as part of Serbia. Showing its commitment to the European path, Serbian police units arrested the top war crimes suspect Radovan Karadzic on July 21 and extradited him to the Hague days later. Karadzic, the political leader of the Bosnian Serbs during the war in Bosnia, is accused of masterminding the genocide in the town of Srebrenica in July 1995, resulting in the death of 8,000 Muslim boys and men. He is also accused of other counts of war crimes, including the bombardment of Sarajevo that killed more than 14,000 civilians.
The decision to arrest the 13-year fugitive proved unpopular with the May election’s losers, the radicals and nationalists, who organized protests in Serbia seeking a stop to Karadzic’s extradition to the war crimes tribunal in the Hague. While Karadzic’s arrest and subsequent extradition to the Hague were major displays of commitment to European integration for Serbia, that path remains blocked until the country complies with all stated requirements before it can become a candidate to join the EU. Key among those requirements is the arrest of Karadzic’s military commander during the Bosnian war, General Ratko Mladic.
Tough Challenges Ahead
Arresting Mladic will prove more difficult for Serbian authorities than the arrest of Karadzic. Mladic enjoys more popularity within Serbia than Karadzic ever did. Some Serbians regard Mladic as a true national hero, and Karadzic as an advocate of Serb peoples. The official line from Serbian authorities is that Mladic’s whereabouts are unknown, but many human rights activists, as well as international community officials, doubt that.
It is widely believed that Mladic is in Serbia, and is not masking himself as Karadzic did for years, posing as Dragan Dabic, an alternative medicine guru hiding behind a long white beard and hair.
The former general is also likely to enjoy the support of current military leaders in Serbia, an unofficial brotherhood of officers that may offer protection for one of its own. It is well known that Serbian armed forces provided support, both logistics and financial, for the former general prior to 2006, when he lived openly in Belgrade before the country announced more stringent measures in its cooperation with the War Crimes Tribunal at the Hague. Through his military career, and especially while commanding the Serb forces during the Bosnian war, Mladic developed a reputation among the military cadre as a commander who preferred the company of his men on the front lines rather than that of politicians in much safer places, amplifying his popularity among the officers.
People who were close to Mladic in the past, including his biographer, have suggested he is more likely to end his life than to face justice in the Hague. Another belief is that the former General is ill and may not live much longer.
Although Serbian authorities claim they are unaware of Mladic’s hideout, some media and international community representatives suspect Serbian leadership is negotiating a peaceful surrender with the former general. The Serbian authorities understand that they have momentum since Karadzic’s arrest that can carry them closer to European integration, because news of Mladic’s arrest would be an effective boost for Serbian chances in Brussels. While arresting Mladic may prove unpopular with many Serbians, the government knows it must deliver him to the Hague before he dies, or it will likely be labeled as an accomplice to Mladic’s evasion from justice. Although they would not be celebrating Mladic’s arrest, many in Serbia would welcome another major step toward European integration.
Future Steps
The arrest of Mladic is likely to be completed in a matter of months, not years, because the arrest of Karadzic alone will not inch Serbia any closer to the European Union than it is now. The government has made a commitment to joining the European Union and will ride the momentum it created with Karadzic’s arrest.
If Mladic remains free, Karadzic’s arrest will be remembered as an unpopular decision among thousands of people and voters, an arrest that “betrayed” Serbians but did not accomplish anything for Serbia.
