Highlights
– Poland receives $20 million in exchange for US missiles
– Russia threatens nuclear attack over US defense shield
– Secretary Gates dismisses nuclear power use as ‘empty rhetoric’
Russia’s Deputy Chief of Staff to the Army, General Anatoly Nogovitsyn, warned that any new US assets in Europe could come under Russian nuclear attack with his forces targeting “the allies of countries having nuclear weapons.” According to General Nogovitsyn, Russian military doctrine sanctions the use of nuclear weapons against the allies of countries that possess nuclear weapons if those countries assist the nuclear power. The statement comes on the heels of Poland’s agreement to station the deployment of 10 interceptor missiles at a site in Poland as part of a US missile shield. In return, Poland is to receive Patriot missile batteries in order to augment Poland’s current defense capabilities, in addition to a mutual commitment between the two countries to provide assistance as military needs arise.
While the mutual commitment assurance offered to Poland appears to be a strong security guarantee, Russia’s recent moves have shown the influence the country continues to have in the region, and the relative lack of influence the West retains. Russian’s incursion into Georgia has struck fear into many of the former Soviet satellite states, particularly Poland and Ukraine. While Secretary of Defense Robert Gates dismissed General Nogovitsyn’s threats as empty rhetoric, Poland’s Prime Minister, Donald Tusk, believes the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) would be too slow in coming to Poland’s defense if attacked, hence the added security commitment. Additionally, given the commercial ties that much of Europe – namely France and Germany – have with the Russian federation, the Prime Minister’s concerns appear justified.
While we do not anticipate any aggressive moves to be made against Poland in the near-term, the greater likelihood is that Russia will direct its attention towards Ukraine. As former Prime Minister Yanukovich has already shown himself to be friendly with Moscow, we anticipate Russia to use Ukraine’s opposition party, the Party of Regions, to plant contention within the country and attempt to shift the country back towards a Russian way of thinking in the near to mid-term. However, Ukraine’s current leaders are increasingly at odds with their counterparts in Russia and are attempting to maintain closer ties with the US.
US Influence in the Region May be Waning
While the US has taken a relatively unconcerned posture after Russia’s recent threats to Poland, many analysts believe that the West has far less influence in the region than previously thought. Russia’s invasion of Georgia has proven to be a strategic success in exerting its influence in its former satellite states, reminding the West that while Russia may not be a superpower it remains a regional power. As Georgia appears set to lose both South Ossetia and Abkhazia to Russian oversight in the coming weeks, NATO and the West appear powerless to stop the regional restructuring.
Poland has long been guided by fears of a newly resurgent Russia, and the violence in Georgia appears to confirm those fears. Should the US continue to be bogged down in the Middle East for the foreseeable future, Russia will have a freer hand to influence policy in Eastern Europe.
Outlook
While the Polish President, Lech Kaczynski, believes that the mere existence of a missile defense shield, though not scheduled to be operational until 2012, increases Poland’s security, Russia’s moves in Georgia appear to show otherwise. Even though Georgia is more isolated, both geographically and politically, from outside support than is Poland, NATO’s reticence to intervene has essentially given Russia a green light to conduct more aggressive foreign policy towards its neighbors. We anticipate Russian continuing to put pressure on its former satellite states, particularly those seeking NATO support, to rethink their future alliances.