Highlights
– Head of German Bundeskriminalamt (BKA) indicates members of al-Qaeda or the Islamic Jihad Union may be plotting attacks in Germany
– Authorities believe approximately 50 militants from Germany have trained in camps led by al-Qaeda, the Taliban or the Islamic Jihad Union
– While German security officials have made strides in identifying potential extremists, the ability to disrupt a future terrorist action within the country remains low to moderate
In an interview with Der Tagesspiegel published on August 10, 2008, Joerg Ziercke, head of the German Federal Crime Office (BKA) stated that more than 50 militants had traveled from Germany to attend training camps in Afghanistan and Pakistan, believed to be run by al-Qaeda, the Taliban and the Islamic Jihad Union. As a result, German authorities currently are conducting 200 investigations linked to Islamic terrorism, with approximately 100 suspects identified as potential threats and believed to be residing within Germany.
Public acknowledgement regarding trained Islamic militant attackers residing in Germany and the potential threat posed by this reality will do little to thwart a potential large-scale attack. Although the BKA admitted it had no evidence of an imminent attack, the capabilities and intent of militants indicate a growing potential. As such, the transparency with which the German officials have acknowledged the growing threat may succeed in increasing public awareness and alertness.
Despite the publicity, however, the ability to disrupt a future terrorist action within Germany will remain low to moderate in the near to mid-term.
Plotting Attacks in Germany
Germany stands in contrast to its European neighbors, the United Kingdom and Spain, both of whom have experienced large-scale terrorist attacks within the past five years. Germany has yet to experience a major attack on its own soil, and according to German authorities at least seven such plots have been disrupted in the past several years.
• One of Germany’s major plot disruptions occurred in September 2007, when three men were arrested on suspicion of planning a “massive” terrorist attack in Germany, which targeted Frankfurt International Airport, Ramstein US Air Base, and local pubs in Mannheim or Dortmund among other targets (Previous Report). Subsequent arrests and investigation indicated that several of the cell members had attended terror training camps run by the Islamic Jihad Union in Pakistan.
Potential Threat from IJU
The Islamic Jihad Union, is believed to be a splinter group of the Islamic Jihad Group in Uzbekistan, which gained prominence in 2004, when it claimed responsibility for a series of bombings that killed 47 people in Uzbekistan. Much of its mission is based on the forced removal of President Islam Karmimov and the instatement of an Islamic government. Due to the close ties between the IJF and the Islamic Jihad Group in Uzbekistan, which has known ties to al-Qaeda, the likelihood of members of the group obtaining weaponry and training for use in future attacks is high.
As for potential IJU German-based members, German nationals are likely among the suspects currently being observed by police. For instance, the three men arrested in September 2007 in Germany included two German nationals, both of whom had converted to Islam, while one was a Turkish national.
On the Horizon
The recent announcement regarding a threat posed by Islamic terrorists to Germany is primarily a public awareness campaign to assure citizens that security officials are appropriately targeting all possible threats. However, the likelihood of a near to mid-term attack attempt within Germany is a possibility as police have investigations on a number of operatives.
According to BKA’s chief, attacks are not a matter of if, but when, as he stated, “Unfortunately, I am unable to sound the all clear – after all we have repeatedly eluded a catastrophe by a mere hair’s breadth.” As such, the threat posed by Islamic militants within Germany will continue to be high in the mid to long-term.
