Highlights
– Disagreement emerges over Russia’s plan to withdraw troops
– Russia is expected to increase its military presence in Abkhazia and South Ossetia
– A militarized South Ossetia and Abkhazia will pose a long-term national security threat to Georgia
On August 17, 2008 Russian President Dmitry Medvedev and French President Nicolas Sarkozy agreed that Russia would start pulling back its forces from Georgia on August 18th.
The decision by Medvedev to withdraw troops comes almost one week after hostilities between Russia and Georgia largely ended. An agreement between Medvedev and Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili, which initially led to a shaky ceasefire on August 12, 2008 required both sides to pull back troops to positions held prior to the recent fighting.
On August 7, 2008 Georgian forces crossed into the breakaway region of South Ossetia in an attempt to reassert its control and quell a recent upsurge in rebel attacks against Georgian police and military personnel (Previous Report). On August 8th, Moscow deployed a large-scale invasion force into South Ossetia and continued into Georgia proper, claiming to protect the citizens of South Ossetia, as well as the current contingent of Russian peacekeepers located in the breakaway republic.
The decision to withdraw has abated fears the conflict would spread throughout the Caucasus. However, with the Russian military presence in the region expected to remain strong, the outbreak of additional small-scale clashes is a likely possibility.
Troop Withdraw
On August 18, 2008 Colonel-General Anatoly Nogovitsyn said Russia had begun withdrawing troops from the conflict zone in Georgia, including the strategic central city of Gori. However, Georgian officials have countered Russian claims by arguing that Russia is not withdrawing, and in some instances, have moved deeper into Georgian territory. The statements come as the international community remains uncertain about whether Russia would fulfill its promise to withdraw military forces in accordance to the agreed upon peace plan.
Nogovitsyn also stated that troops were pulling back to South Ossetia and to an unspecified security zone. However, this issue is a point of contention in Russian/Georgian relations, as officials from both countries are unable to clarify the dimensions of the security zone. The Russian General was careful in his words, claiming Russia was not “pulling out,” but simply “pulling back” its troops into South Ossetia, causing unease in Georgia.
Despite Russian efforts to begin withdrawing troops from the conflict zone, Georgia, as well as several in the international community, remains skeptical. This is largely due to past promises broken by Russia in the conflict, including claims by Medvedev that military operations would be halted, when in fact they were accelerated.
While Russia has begun withdrawing troops from Georgia proper, it is likely to stall and take more time than the international community would like. Because of this, the international community, particularly the United States and France, will keep diplomatic pressure on Russia to fulfill its pledge of withdrawing troops from Gori and other areas located deep in Georgia.
Militarizing South Ossetia and Abkhazia
With Russia pulling back its troops, it is likely to move into South Ossetia. As the province’s president, Eduard Kokoity, asked Russia to establish a permanent base there, Moscow is almost certain to keep a large contingent of forces inside the region.
A heavily militarized South Ossetia by Russian forces is likely to be a future point of contention between Moscow and Tbilisi, as Saakashvili remains defiant in regards to the region, claiming he will never give up the troubled province or allow independence. A militarized South Ossetia also poses a national security threat to the central government in Tbilisi, as Russia will likely use the region to destabilize the Saakashvili government.
According to the Georgian Foreign Ministry, separatists backed by Russia have shifted the border of Abkhazia toward the Inguri River, setting up administration in 13 Georgian villages. Abkhazian separatists were active in the latest conflict, battling Georgian forces in and around South Ossetia. Russia, which backs Abkhazia financially and militarily, has increased its troop levels in the province to almost 9,000 and shows few signs of near-term reductions.
Near-Term Outlook
Despite the conflicting reports regarding a Russian troop pull back, Moscow will likely be withdrawing a majority of its forces from Georgia proper in the coming days. However, in the mid to long-term, Russia is expected to increase troop levels in both South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Both breakaway regions are pro-Russia and have welcomed an increased Russian presence.
A heavily militarized South Ossetia and Abkhazia not only poses a national security threat to Georgia, but negatively impacts Tbilisi’s aims to retake the provinces in the mid to long-term. As Saakashvili and other world leaders call for Russia to respect Georgia’s territorial integrity and leave the breakaway regions, Moscow is unlikely to oblige.
A Russian presence in both regions will be problematic for Georgia, especially as it continues on its pro-West path. Russia will continue attempting to destabilize Georgia and will find it easier to do so with a strong presence in Abkhazia and South Ossetia.
