Highlights:
-Sadr Militia morphing into cultural and religious wing
-Aims to mimic Hizballah
-Political influence will grow significantly in the near to mid-term
On August 7, 2008 a spokesman for Iraqi Shia Cleric Moqtada al-Sadr confirmed rumors the Sadr Militia—also known as the Mahdi Army—would disarm when US forces withdraw from Iraqi territory. On August 8, 2008 the spokesman’s announcement was confirmed during Friday prayers in Sadr City when the resident Imam delivered a directive from al-Sadr calling on all members of the Mahdi Army to join the Sadr Movement’s new cultural and religious wing.
Al-Sadr said the Mahdi Army will not completely dissolve but rather the large militia will be pared down to an elite group of special forces to respond to crises, while the remaining fighters would take up positions in the movement’s social-religious wing. The Sadr Movement’s shift toward a social-religious focus is designed to improve the movement’s image ahead of provincial elections.
The inability of the Iraqi government to pass the provincial elections law will provide the movement with increased momentum to garner the support it needs to win seats in the future election.
Emulating Hizballah
Speculation concerning the extent of Hizballah’s relationship with the Sadr Movement is rampant. The al-Sadr family clerics and Hizballah leader Hassan Nasarallah all trace their ideological roots to Qom, Iran, known as a seat of Shia theology. The similarities between the two movements do not end with the leadership’s common theological roots:
•Both movements were born in the midst of a failed state embroiled in sectarian fighting;
•Both movements maintain military and social wings, and both movements leverage the majority of their support based on their social welfare organs and security provision for supporters;
•And, finally, both organizations have benefited from Iranian financial assistance.
It was, therefore, not surprising when in November 2006 the US military uncovered evidence that Hizballah fighters were aiding and training members of the Sadr Militia. Because of its prior success, the Sadr Movement would benefit from using lessons learned from Hizballah in how to gain popularity with the people. Should the movement regain the support of southern Iraq’s Shia population, it will make significant political gains in upcoming provincial elections.
The Sadr Movement has largely withdrawn from the political scene in the past year as it struggled to survive an onslaught of Iraqi and US military campaigns aimed at dismantling the movement, as well as internal dissention (Previous Report). However, the movement views the provincial elections as an opportunity to regain political momentum. Al-Sadr and his followers considered Iraqi and US military combat operations in Najaf and Sadr City attempts to diminish popular support for the movement. As such, the Sadr Movement’s shift toward focusing on social welfare has been designed to undue any damage done by these campaigns to the movement’s image in war-torn southern cities and in Baghdad.
Future Outlook
There is reason to believe the Sadr Movement will prove successful in its efforts. By announcing it will disarm when the US military withdraws, al-Sadr is presenting himself as a nationalist, not a cleric who is driven by personal gain. It is unlikely that the movement would disarm completely, but by focusing its energy on rebuilding cities and providing for poor Shia refugees, the movement will likely gain the adoration of the Shia Iraqi population.
Conversely, the Iraqi government could easily thwart al-Sadr’s efforts by establishing a universally beneficial social welfare and refugee relief apparatus. However, it is unlikely the government will succeed in implementing a broad development strategy in the near-term.
•To date, the Iraqi government has failed to disperse development and reconstruction funding outlined in its 2008 budget, and what little money dispersed in majority Shia provinces was primarily distributed to members of President Nouri al-Maliki’s political party, the Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council.
Ultimately, we believe the Sadr Movement will gain increased support among Shia populations. Sadr’s movement will prove more effective at meeting the needs of its constituents than the divided Iraqi government, and will develop into a powerful political force in the mid to long-term.
