Highlights
-Georgian and Russian military forces continue battling in South Ossetia
-Russia has threatened to widen the conflict by attacking positions deep into Georgian territory
-The situation remains unstable as Russian forces continue moving deeper toward the Georgian capital
-Russian president orders halt to operations
On August 7, 2008 Georgia launched a major military operation, involving troops, tanks, and aircraft into the breakaway province of South Ossetia, briefly occupying its capital Tskhinvali.
In response to Georgia’s decision to invade South Ossetia, Russia entered the conflict by deploying a massive force that not only drastically escalated fighting in the province, but also threatens to plunge the entire Caucasus region into war, particularly because Moscow has widened the conflict by attacking targets deep in Georgia.
South Ossetia and a second separatist republic, Abkhazia, are internationally unrecognized but gained de facto independence from Georgia after a series of bloody wars in the 1990’s. Both republics eventually settled into a period of tenuous peace monitored by a contingent of Russian peacekeeping troops. However, sparking the latest round of violence last week were incidents by separatist fighters from South Ossetia, who launched several guerrilla-style attacks on Georgian military personnel in the area. The separatists have also been accused of using mortars to target villages, resulting in the deaths of at least 10 Georgians.
We expect hostilities between Georgian forces and South Ossetian rebels to increase in the near-term, especially in light of Georgia’s invasion and the inability to seek its goal of recovering the breakaway province.
A Widening of the Conflict
On August 8, 2008 when Russia decided to deploy a military force into South Ossetia, it represented a severe escalation in the conflict. Moscow claims it sent an invasion force into South Ossetia to support Russian peacekeepers already stationed there and restore order. However, after four days of intense fighting in Tskhinvali and with Georgia pleading for a ceasefire and currently withdrawing troops from South Ossetia, Russia has yet to cease military operations, which ultimately suggests Moscow has larger aspirations.
With Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili appealing to the international community for a halt in hostilities, Russia has widened the conflict by attacking targets deep into Georgian territory using strategic bombers and ballistic missiles. While top Russian leadership have made claims they have no intention of entering Georgian territory, Gori, and the Georgian towns of Senaki, Zugdidi and Kurga have already been occupied. By controlling Gori, which sits on Georgia’s only east-west highway, Russia has the potential to effectively cut the country in half. In addition, Russian aircraft targeted Tbilisi International Airport, gas pipelines, and various military bases throughout Georgia.
Moscow has even taken the war to the waterways by deploying a naval force on the Black Sea off the Georgian coast in an attempt to prevent military supplies from reaching the country. There have been numerous reports of Georgian patrol boats being attacked and sunk by the larger and more powerful Russian navy.
Adding to Georgia’s woes, Abkhazian rebels, backed by the Russian military, have entered the conflict and begun attacking Georgian troops in an attempt to push them out of a part of the province controlled by Tbilisi. Over the past day, Abkhazian separatists have played a larger combat role and have been involved in the seizing of towns and police stations in Georgian-controlled territory.
However, on August 12, 2008 Russian President Dmitry Medvedev announced a halt to military operations in Georgia. The halt is strongly disputed by Georgia, which has claimed the military operations have continued and Russian forces remain in close proximity to Tbilisi .
Near-Term Outlook
While Georgia and Russia are blaming each other for the escalation in hostilities, the international community is growing increasingly frustrated with Moscow over its use of overwhelming force and efforts in widening the conflict. The United States is leading the international community in criticizing Moscow, but thus far has largely been ignored, as military operations have yet to cease.
The latest conflict between Georgia and Russia has caused a serious deterioration in relations between the countries. Despite his country’s weakened position, President Saakashvili is claiming Georgia will continue to fight Russia in South Ossetia and will defend the land “until the last drop of blood.” Despite the supposed cessation in operations, Russia is calling for a complete withdrawal from the disputed regions and in the mean time is continuing to flood both Abkhazia and South Ossetia with thousands of troops and military equipment.
It is Saakashvili who has a lot to lose over the latest conflict, as the Georgian leader came to power in 2004 with an agenda to recover both breakaway territories and bring the country closer to the West, particularly by joining the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). Whether the Georgian leader underestimated the Russian response to its invasion of South Ossetia or overestimated the amount of support it would have received from the West, Saakashvili cannot afford to lose. Saakashvili’s gamble in invading South Ossetia is backfiring, as he may have made the exact mistake Russia wanted him to make – giving Kremlin hawks the excuse to fill South Ossetia and Abkhazia with additional military equipment, which they could ultimately use to destabilize Georgia and undermine the Saakashvili government.
Despite receiving equipment and training from the US, there is practically no chance that the Georgian military can match against a resurgent and refurbished Russia in a conflict that is beginning to bear the hallmarks of an all-out-war. Saakashvili’s appeals to the West for help are unlikely to illicit a practical response, other than diplomatic support, as several in the West are unwilling to stand up to Moscow. Whether or not the effect was intended, Russia appears to be using Saakashvili’s strategic overreach to teach a brutal lesson not only to the Georgians, but also to other neighbors seeking to align themselves with the West against Russia.
Saakashvili’s gamble is unlikely to pay off, with Russia appearing to be committed to dealing the Georgian leader a humiliating defeat. With Russia announcing a halt in operations, only the coming days will reveal whether Russia will be satisfied with a major military presence in South Ossetia and Abkhazia, or if it seeks the removal of Saakashvili.