Highlights
– Indian Mujahideen claim responsibility for three serial bombings throughout India since November 2007
– Group likely a front organization made up of several existing terrorist groups
– Indian authorities unlikely to find the perpetrators of the attacks in the near-term
– Continued serial bombings remain likely as militants plant explosive devices in easily concealed objects around major metropolitan areas
The Indian Mujahideen have claimed responsibility for three serial bombings in major Indian cities in less than one year and were implicated in several others. The tactics employed by the group indicate it is likely a front organization of several terrorist groups based in India, attempting to ferment communal unrest.
Prime suspects in the investigation into the Indian Mujahideen include the Harkat-ul-Jihad-al-Islami (HuJI), Students Islamic Movement of India (SIMI), Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM) and Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT). The most recent attack claimed by the Indian Majahideen was the July 26, 2008 serial blasts in Ahmedabad , which took place only one day after seven low-intensity bombs shook Bangalore . While no one has claimed responsibility for the Bangalore blasts, the similar modus operandi indicates that the Indian Mujahideen is likely responsible for both incidents.
Regardless of the validity of the Indian Mujahideen as a new terrorist group or as a front for several existing insurgencies, the continued ability of terrorists to carry out attacks in major metropolitan areas throughout India demonstrates concerning deficiencies with Indian security forces.
A Front Organization
On August 1, 2008, the Indian government announced, “There is no such thing as Indian Mujahideen.” Prime Minister (PM) Manmohan Singh’s government alleges that several foreign terrorist groups operating inside India united to carry out the bombings in Bangalore and Ahmedabad.
Organizations such as SIMI have wide networks throughout the country, and most likely provided the local capabilities for the attacks. Indian authorities have also reported that several of the bombs employed techniques previously seen in attacks claimed by HuJI and LeT. However, no conclusive evidence was revealed linking any of the groups, since there are also numerous differences between the recent attacks and previous incidents claimed by the above suspect groups.
Objective
While it remains unclear who formed the Indian Mujahideen, the location of each of the blasts indicates the objective of the group is to incite communal unrest in cities traditionally riddled with ethnic tensions. As we previously reported, more than 1,000 people died in 2002 when riots broke out between Muslims and Hindus after 59 Hindu pilgrims were killed in a train fire in Gujarat, which was originally blamed on Muslims. Although the fire was eventually ruled accidental, most of those killed in the ensuing riots were Muslims (Previous Report).
The 2002 riots were references in the email the Indian Mujahideen sent to claim responsibility for the Ahmedabad blasts. Similar communal tensions existed in Uttar Pradesh and Jaipur, the two other cities the Indian Mujahideen reportedly attacked in the past year .
While these attacks have instilled fear throughout India, no resulting protests or riots have erupted thus far. In the aftermath of the Ahmedabad bombings paramilitary troops were sent to patrol the streets to deter civil unrest; however, the move appeared unnecessary as most people stayed indoors, afraid of additional blasts.
Implications for India
Indian authorities also speculated that the bombings had links to Pakistan’s Inter Services Intelligence (ISI). Tensions between India and Pakistan have increased lately, as a suicide bomber struck the Indian Embassy in Kabul on July 7, 2008 . Both the Afghan and Indian governments have blamed the ISI for the attack, and the accusations will likely further strain relations between India and Pakistan as they try to resolve the Kashmir border dispute.
Similar to previous attacks, Indian authorities do not have any concrete leads in the investigations of the serial blasts in Ahmedabad and Bangalore, as they detain dozens of alleged militants around the country.
We maintain that security will remain heightened for the near to mid-term, as Indian security continues to demonstrate the inability to prevent or detect attacks before they occur. Terror groups will likely continue to carry out bombings in major cities for the near-term.
